← Cockpit
248_040predictionAIAI-timing

Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
53.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
54 / 19
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | if you attempt to pause either one company or one country, the rest of the world will race ahead and that will result in a further escalation of capabilities... all it does is is further accelerate the race dynamic that's already present. | International AI governance summits

Key catalyst: International AI governance summits

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
if you attempt to pause either one company or one country, the rest of the world will race ahead and that will result in a further escalation of capabilities... all it does is is further accelerate the race dynamic that's already present.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Pausing AI accelerates race — game-theoretic reality.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 53%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z53.0%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 54.4% → 53.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z54.4%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 57.0% → 54.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z57.0%-4.6pp
Network propagation: 61.6% → 57.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z61.6%-7.5pp
Network propagation: 69.2% → 61.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z69.2%-10.8pp
Network propagation: 79.9% → 69.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z79.9%-12.1pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 79.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+30.8pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.692
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.30845999999999996,
  "inside_posterior": 0.69154,
  "validation_notes": "Pausing AI accelerates race — game-theoretic reality.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.69154,
  "resolution_evidence": "Pausing AI accelerates race — game-theoretic reality.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.303
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.920+0.259
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.920+0.216
prereq231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weighAlex Wissner-Gross
34.0%0.9200.050-0.192
prereq248_048
AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numericalAlex Wissner-Gross
34.0%0.9200.050-0.192

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq241_057
Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk
44.8%0.5500.050-0.136
prereq233_021
AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learnJoe Liemandt
38.7%0.4500.050-0.128
prereq242_001
Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year,Elon Musk
43.9%0.5500.050-0.128
prereq237_023
Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' forAlex Wissner-Gross
40.7%0.5000.050-0.122
prereq239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mElon Musk
40.2%0.5000.050-0.117

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (54)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereq246_029Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.AI
prereq231_026Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.AI
prereq242_057Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionSpace
prereq230_048Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms.AI
prereq248_013Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.AI
prereq234_046AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humansAI
prereq237_029AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.AI
prereq240_003NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volumeAI
prereq241_045Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to winAI
prereq242_042Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to investAI
prereq244_036Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing)AI
prereq246_050Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release.AI
prereq248_012AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.AI
prereq248_021Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.Space
prereq248_023Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.AI
prereq248_046Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.Space
prereq246_024Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).AI
prereq237_011AI agents will have voices in the near future.AI
prereq231_045Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash.AI
prereq248_050Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters.AI
prereq241_013Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effectsAI
prereq247_010Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectoryAI
prereq247_004Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversionsAI
prereq231_001Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.AI
prereq247_011OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billionAI
prereq231_025Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).AI
prereq231_016Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.AI
prereq237_020The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local.AI
prereq240_058OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plansAI
prereq237_030Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus.AI
prereq234_025Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robotsRobotics
prereq235_010Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.AI
prereq248_027Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.Other
prereq247_003Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPOAI
prereq238_040Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OSAI
prereq231_015Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.AI
prereq248_048AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm.AI
correlateS_NO_AI_PAUSE_5YNo major AI pause through 2031ai_regulatory_pause
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2028AI pause beginning 2028ai_regulatory_pause
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
correlateS_AI_PAUSE_2027AI pause beginning 2027ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (19)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereq241_038Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredAI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq241_025Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsSpace
prereq242_001Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionAI
prereq241_057Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentRobotics
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space
prereq238_052$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_010Mass driver on the moon within 10 yearsSpace
prereq237_023Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.AI
prereq239_004xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026AI
prereq233_021AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.AI
prereq230_022Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Robotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Capability 2026-06] [248_040] International AI governance summits [231_026] Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. [238_020] Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematpending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importPausing AI accelerates race — game-theoretic reality.

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.588manifoldWill NSSB get delayed by more than 30 minutes?97%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.580manifoldHow many minutes will CLASH (HS) be delayed by?mentionspending2026-05-12
0.572manifoldWill at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?77%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.554manifoldWill I avoid distractions during seminars, study groups, and workshops until the end of the month?21%mentionspending2026-05-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "if you attempt to pause either one company or one country, the rest of the world will race ahead and that will result in a further escalation of capabilities.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "if you attempt to pause either one company or one country, the rest of the world will race ahead and that will result in a further escalation of capabilities... all it does is is further accelerate the race dynamic that's already present.",
  "conv_cues": "self-defeating",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "237_023",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "233_021",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "230_022",
      "expected_date": "2029-12-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "238_052",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "232_047",
      "expected_date": "2037-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 248,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.028556+00:00",
  "source_refs": "AI Futurists Report; OpenAI industrial policy",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-18",
  "key_catalyst": "International AI governance summits",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "248",
  "consensus_size": 16,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C5"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Pausing AI fails; only accelerates race dynamics. Validated by Schmidt position, OpenAI industrial-policy workshop, continued China/US capability race.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-06",
  "cluster_avg_grade":
... (truncated)