Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | if if OpenAI catches up or Grock 5, where the hell is Grock 5?... So, there's no pressure on Dario at the moment, but if there were, yeah, you'd have to raise it out the door. Something really bad's going to happen.
Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures; Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)
Verbatim quote
if if OpenAI catches up or Grock 5, where the hell is Grock 5?... So, there's no pressure on Dario at the moment, but if there were, yeah, you'd have to raise it out the door. Something really bad's going to happen.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-15 → 2026-12-31pendingGrok 5 publicly launchesHow: xAI releases Grok 5 publicly via X Premium / xAI API / open weights; benchmarks reach or surpass Claude 4.7 / GPT-5 on Artificial Analysis compositeSource: https://overchat.ai/ai-hub/grok-5-release-dateconf 55%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnthropic accelerates next-gen model release calendar (Claude 5 / Opus 5)How: Anthropic announces Claude 5 / Opus 5 release date or model card within 2 quarters of OpenAI/xAI competitive release; verified via anthropic.com release notesSource: https://sacra.com/c/anthropic/conf 55%
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingOpenAI catches up to Anthropic in benchmark performance on >=2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond}How: OpenAI releases model (GPT-5.5, GPT-6, or named successor) that matches or exceeds Anthropic's leading model on at least 2 of {SWE-bench Verified, ARC-AGI, GPQA-Diamond}; verified via Artificial Analysis or Epoch AI public leaderboardSource: https://www.neuralbuddies.com/p/gpt-5-5-vs-claude-opus-4-7-vs-grok-5conf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAnthropic safety / alignment incident reported during accelerated release pressureHow: Anthropic discloses (Model Card, Responsible Scaling Policy report, blog) or major outlet reports an alignment-spec violation or safety-rollback incident on a model released under explicit competitive-pressure release pacingSource: https://www.anthropic.com/newsconf 40%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Anthropic loses pricing power; commercial deals re-priced down >10%How: Anthropic publicly cuts API pricing >10% on flagship models, or major customer (AWS, Cursor, GitHub, Notion) discloses Anthropic price concession; confirmed via Anthropic pricing page diff or major outletSource: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/anthropic-annualized-revenue-26-billion-2026/ch6F2pqR3N6conf 40%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Dario Amodei or Anthropic exec publicly addresses competitive-pressure release tradeoffsHow: Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, or Anthropic president directly addresses tradeoff between competitive pressure and safety-deployment cadence in podcast, congressional testimony, or open letter; quoted in major outletSource: https://www.anthropic.com/newsconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.079 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.069 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.046 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.014 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
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"context": "if OpenAI catches up or Grock 5... you'd have to raise it out the door. Something really bad's going to happen.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "if if OpenAI catches up or Grock 5, where the hell is Grock 5?... So, there's no pressure on Dario at the moment, but if there were, yeah, you'd have to raise it out the door. Something really bad's going to happen.",
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"source": "https://www.neuralbuddies.com/p/gpt-5-5-vs-claude-opus-4-7-vs-grok-5",
... (truncated)