Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | I'm a huge believer in terraforming... we're going to discover new physics and god knows what's going to be possible... I would absolutely in an instant go to another star that has a you know a terraformed world... terraforming I think is a massive part of humanity's future.
Verbatim quote
I'm a huge believer in terraforming... we're going to discover new physics and god knows what's going to be possible... I would absolutely in an instant go to another star that has a you know a terraformed world... terraforming I think is a massive part of humanity's future.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-11-01 → 2027-01-31pendingSpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch windowHow: SpaceX launches at least one Starship toward Mars during 2026/27 transfer window OR officially scrubs to next windowSource: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/elon-musk-says-spacex-will-launch-its-biggest-starship-yet-this-year-but-mars-in-2026-is-50-50conf 50%Notes: Musk gave 50/50 odds; Feb 2026 reporting suggests 5-7 yr Mars program delay but window decision is observable.
- 2026-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warmingHow: Major journal (Nature, Science Advances, JGR Planets) publishes engineering-grade Mars terraforming feasibility analysis with timelineSource: Nature Astronomy, JGR Planets, recent Mars regolith warming papersconf 50%Notes: Building on 2024 Nature paper on engineered aerosols warming Mars.
- 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingSpaceX or government body announces formal terraforming research programHow: SpaceX, NASA, or another national space agency publicly funds or institutes a research program with terraforming in the title or scopeSource: NASA, ESA, SpaceX press releasesconf 25%
- 2030-01-01 → 2040-12-31pendingFirst permanent human Mars settlement attempt (precondition for terraforming)How: Crewed Starship or competitor mission lands humans on Mars with intent to remain >12 monthsSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Mars_colonization_programconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "terraforming I think is a massive part of humanity's future.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I'm a huge believer in terraforming... we're going to discover new physics and god knows what's going to be possible... I would absolutely in an instant go to another star that has a you know a terraformed world... terraforming I think is a massive part of humanity's future.",
"conv_cues": "huge believer",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "long-term future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "248_046",
"expected_date": "2026-06-22",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX Starship Mars uncrewed mission attempts 2026 launch window",
"notes": "Musk gave 50/50 odds; Feb 2026 reporting suggests 5-7 yr Mars program delay but window decision is observable.",
"source": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/elon-musk-says-spacex-will-launch-its-biggest-starship-yet-this-year-but-mars-in-2026-is-50-50",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/elon-musk-says-spacex-will-launch-its-biggest-starship-yet-this-year-but-mars-in-2026-is-50-50",
"expected_date": "2026-12-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-01-31",
"from": "2026-11-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX launches at least one Starship toward Mars during 2026/27 transfer window OR officially scrubs to next window"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First peer-reviewed terraforming feasibility paper for Mars greenhouse gas warming",
"notes": "Building on 2024 Nature paper on engineered aerosols warming Mars.",
"source": "Nature Astronomy, JGR Planets, recent Mars regolith warming papers",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2027-07-02",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
... (truncated)