← Cockpit
248_027predictionOtherAI-scaling

Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
38.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
1/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | So, I wouldn't be surprised if that $5 trillion religion economy goes up tremendously uh you know throughout this AI chaos because people

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
So, I wouldn't be surprised if that $5 trillion religion economy goes up tremendously uh you know throughout this AI chaos because people

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingBible-app and faith-app downloads sustain 20%+ YoY growth through 2026
    How: YouVersion (Bible App), Pray.com, Hallow, or Glorify report >20% YoY MAU growth in 2026 vs 2025; YouVersion crossed 1B installs Nov 2025, Hallow hit Apple #1 Lifestyle in early 2025
    Source: https://www.aicerts.ai/news/religious-techs-rapid-faith-ai-expansion/conf 60%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPew, Gallup, or Barna survey reports rising religious participation tied to AI anxiety
    How: At least one of {Pew Research, Gallup, Barna Group, PRRI} releases a 2026 or 2027 survey explicitly linking AI-era anxiety to a measurable rise in church attendance, prayer-app usage, or self-identified religiosity
    Source: https://dornsife.usc.edu/crcc/6-to-7-trends-to-watch-in-religion-and-society-in-2026/conf 45%
  3. 2026-12-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: Religious tech / faith-app sector raises >$500M in 2026 venture funding
    How: PitchBook, Crunchbase, or CB Insights tally of 2026 venture funding into faith-tech / religious-tech startups exceeds $500M (vs ~$200M in prior years)
    Source: https://www.techugo.com/blog/top-5-religious-tech-trends-transforming-faith-in-2026/conf 35%
  4. 2026-12-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMajor US denomination reports first attendance increase in 10+ years in 2026
    How: Catholic Bishops Conference (USCCB), Southern Baptist Convention, United Methodist Church, or another top-10 US denomination publishes annual report showing 2026 weekly attendance grew vs 2025 (first such growth since pre-2015)
    Source: https://dornsife.usc.edu/crcc/6-to-7-trends-to-watch-in-religion-and-society-in-2026/conf 30%
  5. 2026-12-01 → 2027-09-30pendingGlobal religion-economy aggregate market sizing reports growth above 5% in 2026
    How: Industry sizing report (Faith Counts, McKinsey, Statista) or major outlet round-up estimates 2026 global religion+spirituality+wellness sector revenue grew >5% YoY (vs ~2-3% baseline pre-AI era)
    Source: https://medium.com/@JerryGrzegorzek/the-global-religious-economy-81028b1b0e4econf 45%
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: AI-religion or techno-spirituality movements gain >100K self-identified members
    How: Way of the Future, AI-spirituality groups, or techno-religious organizations report cumulative >100K members or attendees in major outlet coverage
    Source: https://www.thebrink.me/the-rise-of-ai-religion/conf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.1% → 38.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.1%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.4500.050-0.068
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.4500.050-0.067
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.450-0.056
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.039
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.450-0.036

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.152
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.106
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.105
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.085
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.059

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Governance 2026-06] fewer major religions while proliferat [248_027] Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.pending

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.685manifoldWill Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?24%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.630manifoldWill there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?40%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.576manifoldScientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]mentionspending2026-04-28
0.576manifoldScientology Run Prop Bets [ADD ANSWERS]mentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I wouldn't be surprised if that $5 trillion religion economy goes up tremendously uh you know throughout this AI chaos",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "So, I wouldn't be surprised if that $5 trillion religion economy goes up tremendously uh you know throughout this AI chaos because people",
  "conv_cues": "wouldn't be surprised",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bible-app and faith-app downloads sustain 20%+ YoY growth through 2026",
      "source": "https://www.aicerts.ai/news/religious-techs-rapid-faith-ai-expansion/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "YouVersion (Bible App), Pray.com, Hallow, or Glorify report >20% YoY MAU growth in 2026 vs 2025; YouVersion crossed 1B installs Nov 2025, Hallow hit Apple #1 Lifestyle in early 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Pew, Gallup, or Barna survey reports rising religious participation tied to AI anxiety",
      "source": "https://dornsife.usc.edu/crcc/6-to-7-trends-to-watch-in-religion-and-society-in-2026/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one of {Pew Research, Gallup, Barna Group, PRRI} releases a 2026 or 2027 survey explicitly linking AI-era anxiety to a measurable rise in church attendance, prayer-app usage, or self-identified religiosity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Cascade: Religious tech / faith-app sector raises >$500M in 2026 venture funding",
      "source": "https://www.techugo.com/blog/top-5-religious
... (truncated)