Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC.
Watch events: Apple WWDC 2026 June 8-12 keynote
Verbatim quote
Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.400 | -0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.400 | -0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.192 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.146 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.135 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.749 | manifold | Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026? | 87% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.748 | manifold | Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)? | 73% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.739 | polymarket | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.728 | manifold | Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026? | 73% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.727 | manifold | Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)? | 26% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.725 | polymarket | Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? | 96% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.725 | polymarket | Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? | 98% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.716 | polymarket | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? | 83% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.710 | polymarket | Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | 74% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-04 |
| 0.707 | polymarket | Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | 91% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "hypothetical",
"context": "Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC. That would be the most obvious formulation. But I I think if Apple doesn't do it to themselves, then the software community will have it into apps.",
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... (truncated)