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238_040predictionAIAI-scaling

Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
34.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC.

Watch events: Apple WWDC 2026 June 8-12 keynote

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 40%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 34%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.0%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 35.4% → 34.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z35.4%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 37.2% → 35.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z37.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 37.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.400-0.062
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.4000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.4000.050-0.054
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.400-0.045
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4000.050-0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.192
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.146
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.135
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.112
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.089

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.749manifoldWill Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?87%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.748manifoldWill Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?73%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.739polymarketWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?10%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.728manifoldWill Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?73%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.727manifoldWill Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?26%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.725polymarketGemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?96%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.725polymarketGemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?98%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.716polymarketWill Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?83%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.710polymarketGemini 3.5 released by June 30?74%mentionspending2026-02-04
0.707polymarketGemini 3.5 released by May 31?91%mentionspending2026-02-09

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "hypothetical",
  "context": "Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC. That would be the most obvious formulation. But I I think if Apple doesn't do it to themselves, then the software community will have it into apps.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Could be some sort of locally hosted Gemma type model from Gemini hypothetically to be announced in June at WWDC.",
  "conv_cues": "hypothetically",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "June 2026 WWDC",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 238,
  "granularity": "MONTH_YEAR",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-06-20",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-11",
  "parse_method": "MONTH_YEAR parsed",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "238",
  "consensus_size": 11,
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4",
    "C5"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2026-06",
  "watch_events_raw": "Apple WWDC 2026 June 8-12 keynote",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C003",
  "active_start_month": "2026-06",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,

... (truncated)