S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Yscenarioai_regulatory_pause
No major AI pause through 2031
Prior probability
75.0%
Current probability
75.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 23
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Industry self-regulation + national-security framing prevent binding pause. Most likely outcome.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 75%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (23)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | INF_037 | An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | AI_037 | EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | CYB_005 | 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_006 | Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | INF_036 | AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| correlate | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| correlate | SEM_049 | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. | AI/Software | — |
| correlate | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_006 | AI will solve everything including longevity | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_024 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_040 | Nick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_025 | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous systems will generate unintended consequences forcing complete reevaluation of human purpose, economics, justice — as AI solves material scarcity + physical labor constraints, h... | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_073 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. | AI | — |
Linked documents (2)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.683 | manifold | Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? | 11% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.661 | manifold | US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027? | 23% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "pause",
"dimension": "ai_regulatory_pause",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AI pause",
"family_order": 4,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}