AI will solve everything including longevity
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source
Prediction text
AI will solve everything including longevity | >> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.
Watch events: Life Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 first readout (likely late 2026/early 2027)
Verbatim quote
>> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.
Resolution evidence
Musk 'AI solves everything + longevity' — aspiration, no timeline.
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30hitFDA mAbs-roadmap NAM (organoids/in-silico) replaces animal testing in major INDHow: FDA approves a New Approach Methodology (organoid, tissue-chip, or in-silico) as primary safety screen replacing animal testing in a monoclonal antibody INDSource: https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001conf 85%Notes: HIT - FDA mAbs-first roadmap explicitly cited; sets the regulatory precedent that AI/in-silico screening can be primary.
- 2026-07-28pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-10-25pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-01-22pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trialHow: An AI-discovered molecule targeting aging hallmarks (senolytics, partial reprogramming, mTOR, NAD+) reaches Phase I clinical trial with FDA IND filing publicly disclosedSource: https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/conf 65%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingIsomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidateHow: Isomorphic Labs (Demis Hassabis), Insilico, or Recursion publicly announces a wholly AI-designed compound in human trials with reasoning model attributionSource: Isomorphic Labs press; Insilico Medicine investor callsconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)How: A frontier AI lab publishes a peer-reviewed paper claiming a verifiable solution to a long-standing scientific problem (Riemann-class math conjecture, room-temp superconductor, biological aging hallmark)Source: Nature, Science, peer-reviewed lab papersconf 45%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity interventionHow: Any national regulator (FDA, EMA, PMDA, or comparable) approves a gene therapy or longevity intervention where AI is named as primary discovery or design tool in the regulatory dossierSource: FDA / EMA / PMDA approval announcementsconf 30%Notes: Cascade - Musk's 'will solve longevity' is decadal; first regulatory crossing is the leading sign.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | 30.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.239 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.091 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.064 |
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.064 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (14)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y | No major AI pause through 2031 | ai_regulatory_pause | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.578 | manifold | Free Mana:All Options Resolves YES (You can add answer in numerical only) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.566 | manifold | Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes.",
"verbatim": ">> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.",
"conv_cues": "Yes (affirmative)",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "future, unspecified",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FDA mAbs-roadmap NAM (organoids/in-silico) replaces animal testing in major IND",
"notes": "HIT - FDA mAbs-first roadmap explicitly cited; sets the regulatory precedent that AI/in-silico screening can be primary.",
"source": "https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "FDA approves a New Approach Methodology (organoid, tissue-chip, or in-silico) as primary safety screen replacing animal testing in a monoclonal antibody IND"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-07-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-10-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-01-22",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial",
"source": "https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/",
"expected_date": "2027-01-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "An AI-discovered molecule targeting aging hallmarks (senolytics, partial reprogramming, mTOR, NAD+) reaches Phase I clinical trial with FDA IND filing publicly disclosed"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate",
"source": "Isomorphic Labs press; Insilico Medicine investor calls",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Isomorphic Labs (Demis Hassabis), Insilico, or Recursion publicly announces a wholly AI-designed compound in human trials with reasoning model attribution"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)",
"source": "Nature, Science, peer-reviewed lab papers",
"status": "pending",
... (truncated)