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239_006predictionAIAGI

AI will solve everything including longevity

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
45.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
5 / 0
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

AI will solve everything including longevity | >> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.

Watch events: Life Biosciences ER-100 Phase 1 first readout (likely late 2026/early 2027)

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239"
>> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Musk 'AI solves everything + longevity' — aspiration, no timeline.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitFDA mAbs-roadmap NAM (organoids/in-silico) replaces animal testing in major IND
    How: FDA approves a New Approach Methodology (organoid, tissue-chip, or in-silico) as primary safety screen replacing animal testing in a monoclonal antibody IND
    Source: https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001conf 85%
    Notes: HIT - FDA mAbs-first roadmap explicitly cited; sets the regulatory precedent that AI/in-silico screening can be primary.
  2. 2026-07-28pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-10-25pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2027-01-22pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial
    How: An AI-discovered molecule targeting aging hallmarks (senolytics, partial reprogramming, mTOR, NAD+) reaches Phase I clinical trial with FDA IND filing publicly disclosed
    Source: https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/conf 65%
  6. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingIsomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate
    How: Isomorphic Labs (Demis Hassabis), Insilico, or Recursion publicly announces a wholly AI-designed compound in human trials with reasoning model attribution
    Source: Isomorphic Labs press; Insilico Medicine investor callsconf 70%
  7. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)
    How: A frontier AI lab publishes a peer-reviewed paper claiming a verifiable solution to a long-standing scientific problem (Riemann-class math conjecture, room-temp superconductor, biological aging hallmark)
    Source: Nature, Science, peer-reviewed lab papersconf 45%
  8. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst country approves AI-designed gene therapy or longevity intervention
    How: Any national regulator (FDA, EMA, PMDA, or comparable) approves a gene therapy or longevity intervention where AI is named as primary discovery or design tool in the regulatory dossier
    Source: FDA / EMA / PMDA approval announcementsconf 30%
    Notes: Cascade - Musk's 'will solve longevity' is decadal; first regulatory crossing is the leading sign.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.4%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.7%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 49.4% → 46.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.4%-5.3pp
Network propagation: 54.6% → 49.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z54.6%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 56.5% → 54.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
30.0%0.6000.050-0.239
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.091
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.064
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.600+0.064

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
correlateS_NO_AI_PAUSE_5YNo major AI pause through 2031ai_regulatory_pause
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.578manifoldFree Mana:All Options Resolves YES (You can add answer in numerical only)mentionspending2026-05-31
0.566manifoldFree Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)mentionspending2026-06-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes.",
  "verbatim": ">> But it's it's safe to say it will it will solve everything you can possibly think of. >> Yes. >> Uh longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.",
  "conv_cues": "Yes (affirmative)",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "future, unspecified",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FDA mAbs-roadmap NAM (organoids/in-silico) replaces animal testing in major IND",
      "notes": "HIT - FDA mAbs-first roadmap explicitly cited; sets the regulatory precedent that AI/in-silico screening can be primary.",
      "source": "https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/2025s-top-drug-discovery-highlights-and-how-to-stay-ahead-in-2026-0001",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA approves a New Approach Methodology (organoid, tissue-chip, or in-silico) as primary safety screen replacing animal testing in a monoclonal antibody IND"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-discovered longevity candidate enters Phase I clinical trial",
      "source": "https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://lifespan.io/news/an-ai-based-system-has-found-a-potential-longevity-drug/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "An AI-discovered molecule targeting aging hallmarks (senolytics, partial reprogramming, mTOR, NAD+) reaches Phase I clinical trial with FDA IND filing publicly disclosed"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Isomorphic Labs / Insilico Medicine announces AI-designed clinical candidate",
      "source": "Isomorphic Labs press; Insilico Medicine investor calls",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Isomorphic Labs (Demis Hassabis), Insilico, or Recursion publicly announces a wholly AI-designed compound in human trials with reasoning model attribution"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI lab claims demonstrable solution to a major scientific problem (publicly verified)",
      "source": "Nature, Science, peer-reviewed lab papers",
      "status": "pending",
      
... (truncated)