S_AGI_FAST_2027scenarioagi_general_capability
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
0 / 84
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
AGI Phase A — match human expert at most knowledge work. The Aschenbrenner / Altman / accelerated path. Marker: economically transformative AI deployment, autonomous multi-day workflows, expert-level reasoning across domains. Resolution: Sep 2027 OpenAI DevDay window.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_041 Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private fro — Alex Wissner-Gross | 70.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.396 |
| prereq | 234_023 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear — Peter Diamandis | 49.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.267 |
| prereq | 238_035 AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billi — Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.255 |
| prereq | 234_042 AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding M — Peter Diamandis | 47.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.240 |
| prereq | 239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity — Elon Musk | 45.4% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.239 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (84)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_041 | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_035 | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_011 | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_013 | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_042 | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_007 | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_025 | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_054 | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | AI | — |
| prereq | 245_009 | Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 239_006 | AI will solve everything including longevity | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_006 | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_032 | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_015 | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 239_029 | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on Earth | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_013 | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_024 | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_034 | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_005 | AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_022 | Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_028 | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_053 | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless | AI | — |
| prereq | 239_020 | AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_021 | February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_016 | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; any AI capability scaling ultimately routes through the speed at which new generation can be brought online. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_043 | Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_025 | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. | AI | — |
| correlate | CYB_012 | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_004 | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_021 | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_002 | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_048 | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally within 2-3 years — decimating a massive sector of the service economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_031 | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | AUT_001 | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_020 | Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | CYB_011 | Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... | Consumer | — |
| correlate | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_013 | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. | AI | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_004 | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_072 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_012 | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_022 | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. | AI | — |
| correlate | 229_044 | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_022 | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_007 | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_028 | Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | INF_071 | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin to merge with AI; computational intelligence will multiply a thousandfold, triggering a technological singularity where growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. | AI | — |
| correlate | 233_021 | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_008 | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_015 | The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | CMQ_007 | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_038 | The transition to Universal High Income (UHI) necessitated by AI-driven labor displacement may produce severe social unrest — as rapid technological change strips humans of traditional sense of purpose. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | AI_015 | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_002 | 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the elimination of the primary human bottleneck in digital creation, making the automation of the AI researcher by 2027 a mechanical certainty. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | IND_007 | Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AUT_009 | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_003 | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_001 | AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_022 | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | IND_015 | Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2026: autonomous algorithmic systems capable of directing capital and labor so efficiently they accumulate billionaire-level wealth. Open-source AI acts ... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | ROB_001 | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_022 | AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine convergence enabling: mental transfer from brain to brain, integration of nanobots into human bloodstream for perfect biological health maintenance, ach... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Linked documents (4)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.741 | arxiv | Pathways to AGI | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.546 | edgar_8k | Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.546 | edgar_8k | Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.546 | edgar_8k | Gitlab Inc. (GTLB) (CIK 0001653482) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "agi_phase_a",
"fork_key": "agi",
"dimension": "agi_general_capability",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AGI",
"family_order": 1,
"predictor_profile": [
"Aschenbrenner",
"Altman",
"Diamandis (optimistic)"
],
"supporting_evidence": [
"Aschenbrenner Situational Awareness (Jun 2024)",
"METR autonomous task doubling every ~7mo → 2027 expert-level",
"ARC-AGI GPT-5 80% (2026)",
"Sam Altman 2025: 'AGI in next year or two'"
],
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}