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234_022predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind

Predictor: Salim Ismail · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | we need to rebuild every institution and rearchitect every institution by which we run the world. Uh and that is the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind

Verbatim quote

From episode "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced"
we need to rebuild every institution and rearchitect every institution by which we run the world. Uh and that is the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind

Predictor: Salim Ismail

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0144
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Salim Ismail is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-06-30pendingPwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue line
    How: PwC publicly discloses annualized GenAI advisory + reseller revenue >=$3B, broken out from total revenue in earnings or annual report
    Source: Bloomberg Tax — Big Four Firms Embrace AI; PwC announced $1B 3-year GenAI investment, became OpenAI's largest enterprise customer + first resellerconf 70%
  2. 2026-12-31pendingBig-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulative
    How: Public disclosure of >=$15B cumulative AI investment across Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG, McKinsey, BCG, Bain since 2023
    Source: Future of Consulting AI — '$10B+ already poured into AI initiatives since 2023' — extrapolating run-rateconf 80%
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2027-12-31pendingOpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricing
    How: Public reporting of Big-4 advisory pricing pressure or competitive losses to OpenAI's direct consulting arm with >=10 named Fortune 500 wins
    Source: Finance Story — 'OpenAI launches consulting division — Making McKinsey, Accenture, Big 4s nervous'conf 55%
  4. 2026-07-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAccenture AI Refinery client count crosses 5,000 enterprises
    How: Accenture reports >=5,000 enterprise clients on AI Refinery platform with 77,000+ AI professionals
    Source: Future of Consulting AI — 'Accenture owns scale with $3B commitment, ~77,000 AI professionals, AI Refinery platform'conf 65%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingBig-4 advisory revenue grows >=20% YoY driven by AI transformation contracts
    How: At least 3 of (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) report advisory segment revenue growth >=20% YoY, with AI-driven transformation cited as primary driver in MD&A
    Source: Bloomberg Tax + IE — 'Demand from clients to re-imagine workflows with AI is fueling managed services boom'conf 50%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z42.0%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 42.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.2%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 45.3% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.3%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 45.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
30.0%0.5500.050-0.220
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.080
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.055
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.550+0.030
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.058
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.053
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.044
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.031
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.030

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "advisory actually has a reasonably bright future where I think advisory and I've said this to KPMG, EY, Deoid, Accenture is we need to rebuild every institution and rearchitect every institution by which we run the world. Uh and that is the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind",
  "verbatim": "we need to rebuild every institution and rearchitect every institution by which we run the world. Uh and that is the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind",
  "conv_cues": "biggest advisory opportunity",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "PwC ChatGPT Enterprise reseller volume scales as Big-4 AI revenue line",
      "source": "Bloomberg Tax — Big Four Firms Embrace AI; PwC announced $1B 3-year GenAI investment, became OpenAI's largest enterprise customer + first reseller",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/big-four-firms-embrace-ai-to-revamp-corporate-service-offerings",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "PwC publicly discloses annualized GenAI advisory + reseller revenue >=$3B, broken out from total revenue in earnings or annual report"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Big-4 + MBB collective AI investment crosses $15B cumulative",
      "source": "Future of Consulting AI — '$10B+ already poured into AI initiatives since 2023' — extrapolating run-rate",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://futureofconsulting.ai/ai-leadership/2026-consultings-ai-revolution-update/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public disclosure of >=$15B cumulative AI investment across Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG, McKinsey, BCG, Bain since 2023"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI consulting division pressures Big-4 advisory pricing",
      "source": "Fina
... (truncated)