Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.

Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Well, I think it's it's very much a trend that's not going to reverse because... And the US labs are absolutely not publishing papers anymore. Absolutely turning their research budgets internally.

Well, I think it's it's very much a trend that's not going to reverse because... And the US labs are absolutely not publishing papers anymore. Absolutely turning their research budgets internally.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "it's it's very much a trend that's not going to reverse... the self-improvement cycle is in full swing. China, like Alex said, is is kind of leading from behind.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Well, I think it's it's very much a trend that's not going to reverse because... And the US labs are absolutely not publishing papers anymore. Absolutely turning their research budgets internally.",
  "conv_cues": "not going to reverse",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing trend",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "40 researchers at top AI labs sound alarm on lost interpretability",
      "source": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-google-deepmind-and-anthropic-sound-alarm-we-may-be-losing-the-ability-to-understand-ai",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-google-deepmind-and-anthropic-sound-alarm-we-may-be-losing-the-ability-to-understand-ai",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-22",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Cross-lab paper from OpenAI/DeepMind/Anthropic/Meta researchers publicly warns of declining understanding of frontier models"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stanford Foundation Model Transparency Index drops avg score to ~40/100",
      "notes": "HIT — FMTI 2025 confirmed avg 40/100.",
      "source": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/transparency-in-ai-is-on-the-decline",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/transparency-in-ai-is-on-the-decline",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Stanford 2025 FMTI publishes with average transparency score below 45/100, down from 58/100 in 2024"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Six major AI companies decline to submit voluntary transparency reports",
      "notes": "HIT — Alibaba, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Midjourney, Mistral, xAI did not submit.",
      "source": "https://arxiv.org/html/2512.10169v1",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2512.10169v1",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FMTI 2025 documents >=5 companies (incl Anthropic) refusing voluntary submission"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI / Anthropic / Google publish zero environmental-impact data",
      "source": "https://arxiv.org/html/2512.10169v1",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2512.10169v1",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FMTI 2025 confirms >=3 frontier labs disclose no energy/carbon/water usage data"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned 
... (truncated)