S_AGI_SLOW_2031scenarioagi_general_capability
AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path
Prior probability
25.0%
Current probability
25.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2031-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 56
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
AGI Phase C — autonomous scientific discovery in narrow fields. The conservative academic / industry incumbent timeline. Schmidt: 5-10 years out (so 2029-2034). Hassabis: similar. Resolution: Nov 2031 (horizon edge).
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 25%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_007 There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globall — Eric Schmidt | 44.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.253 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (56)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_007 | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_016 | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; any AI capability scaling ultimately routes through the speed at which new generation can be brought online. | Energy | — |
| correlate | CYB_012 | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_021 | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_002 | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| correlate | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 238_013 | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_001 | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... | AI | — |
| correlate | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_005 | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | AI | — |
| correlate | CYB_011 | Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... | Consumer | — |
| correlate | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_010 | True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. | AI | — |
| correlate | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_031 | AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_002 | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_016 | Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| correlate | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_032 | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | AI | — |
| correlate | 240_033 | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_003 | AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... | AI | — |
| correlate | 229_044 | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_022 | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_011 | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_022 | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | 233_021 | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_012 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... | AI | — |
| correlate | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| correlate | AI_006 | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... | AI | — |
| correlate | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| correlate | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_007 | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_016 | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_008 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_023 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_024 | Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "agi_phase_c",
"fork_key": "agi",
"dimension": "agi_general_capability",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AGI",
"family_order": 3,
"predictor_profile": [
"Schmidt",
"Hassabis",
"academic consensus"
],
"supporting_evidence": [
"Schmidt 2024: 'AGI 5-10 years out'",
"Metaculus AGI by 2032: ~70%"
],
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}