On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source
Prediction text
On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.
Verbatim quote
I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2027-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst mammalian whole-brain emulation (mouse) achieves real-time behaviorHow: Peer-reviewed publication or video demonstration shows complete mouse brain emulation with biologically plausible behavior (FlyWire-style fruit fly emulation achieved March 2026)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2031-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingFull mouse connectome mapped at synaptic resolutionHow: Allen Institute, FlyWire successor, or similar consortium publishes complete adult mouse brain synaptic connectome (~70M neurons; Sven Dorkenwald estimates 10-15 yr)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2032-01-01 → 2037-12-31pendingFirst non-human primate connectome publishedHow: Peer-reviewed publication of macaque or marmoset whole-brain connectome at synaptic resolutionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
- 2034-01-01 → 2036-08-31pendingFirst whole-human-brain-emulation candidate enters peer review or public demoHow: Any organization publishes (peer-reviewed or major preprint) a whole-human-brain emulation, even if validation incomplete; required for thesis target window of 5-10 yearsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 10%
- 2033-01-01 → 2038-12-31pendingFirst human cortical region uploaded with functional behavioral validationHow: Peer-reviewed publication demonstrates ex-vivo emulation of a human cortical column or region preserving learned behavior or memorySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 15%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.068 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_005 Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distr — Sam Altman | 72.3% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.060 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.032 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_029 Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will b — Dara Khosrowshahi | 35.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.119 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep — Elon Musk | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (3)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_047 | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Space | — |
| prereq | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | manifold | Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK) | 38% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.555 | github_release | facebookresearch/Replica-Dataset v1.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2019-06-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans",
"to_year": 2036,
"verbatim": "I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.",
"conv_cues": "I do expect",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2031,
"timeframe": "2031-2036",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
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"expected_date": "2031-11-30",
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{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-brain-emulation-fruit-fly-eon-systems",
"expected_date": "2033-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
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},
"measurement_criterion": "Allen Institute, FlyWire successor, or similar consortium publishes complete ad
... (truncated)