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246_042predictionAIAI-timing

On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
37.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2031-01-01 – 2036-08-31
Edges in / out
10 / 3
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2027-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst mammalian whole-brain emulation (mouse) achieves real-time behavior
    How: Peer-reviewed publication or video demonstration shows complete mouse brain emulation with biologically plausible behavior (FlyWire-style fruit fly emulation achieved March 2026)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  2. 2031-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingFull mouse connectome mapped at synaptic resolution
    How: Allen Institute, FlyWire successor, or similar consortium publishes complete adult mouse brain synaptic connectome (~70M neurons; Sven Dorkenwald estimates 10-15 yr)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  3. 2032-01-01 → 2037-12-31pendingFirst non-human primate connectome published
    How: Peer-reviewed publication of macaque or marmoset whole-brain connectome at synaptic resolution
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
  4. 2034-01-01 → 2036-08-31pendingFirst whole-human-brain-emulation candidate enters peer review or public demo
    How: Any organization publishes (peer-reviewed or major preprint) a whole-human-brain emulation, even if validation incomplete; required for thesis target window of 5-10 years
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 10%
  5. 2033-01-01 → 2038-12-31pendingFirst human cortical region uploaded with functional behavioral validation
    How: Peer-reviewed publication demonstrates ex-vivo emulation of a human cortical column or region preserving learned behavior or memory
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 15%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.8%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 39.3% → 37.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z39.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 41.5% → 39.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.450-0.068
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.062
prereqSEM_005
Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distrSam Altman
72.3%0.4500.050-0.060
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.4500.050-0.033
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.032

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_029
Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will bDara Khosrowshahi
35.4%0.5500.050-0.119
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.071
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.065

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (3)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space
prereq244_029Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentEnergy

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.588manifoldWill an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)38%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.555github_releasefacebookresearch/Replica-Dataset v1.0mentionspending2019-06-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "I do expect on the time scale of 5 to 10 years, maybe longer, maybe sooner, many of the locals in our solar system are going to be uploaded humans or derivatives of uploaded humans who will actually live inside the data centers.",
  "conv_cues": "I do expect",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2031,
  "timeframe": "2031-2036",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First mammalian whole-brain emulation (mouse) achieves real-time behavior",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-024-00738-w",
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication or video demonstration shows complete mouse brain emulation with biologically plausible behavior (FlyWire-style fruit fly emulation achieved March 2026)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "S_AGI_SLOW_2031",
      "expected_date": "2031-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Full mouse connectome mapped at synaptic resolution",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/what-is-brain-emulation-fruit-fly-eon-systems",
      "expected_date": "2033-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2036-12-31",
        "from": "2031-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Allen Institute, FlyWire successor, or similar consortium publishes complete ad
... (truncated)