Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.
Verbatim quote
So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2030-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingChina meets 40% EV new-vehicle sales share targetHow: CAAM / IEA reports China new-vehicle EV+PHEV share ≥40% in calendar yearSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2035-01-01pendingEU 2035 ICE-vehicle sales ban takes effect; US sales share reaches 20-30%How: EU regulation 2023/851 enforced for new passenger car sales; EIA/BloombergNEF reports US EV new-car sales share 20-30%Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2040-01-01pendingBloombergNEF: EV share of new car sales globally exceeds 54% (2040 base case)How: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook reports global EV share of new car sales ≥54%Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2042-01-01 → 2046-10-31pendingICE share of GLOBAL light-duty new-vehicle sales drops below 25% (Khosrowshahi's 'largely gone' threshold)How: IEA Global EV Outlook reports new-vehicle ICE share <25% globallySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2044-01-01 → 2050-12-31pendingICE installed-base (existing vehicles) drops below 50% of global fleet — combustion engines 'largely gone' thresholdHow: IEA / WRI fleet data shows global ICE light-duty installed base <50% of total registered vehiclesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.146 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.137 |
| prereq | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in abo — Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.136 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.136 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.121 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (21)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| prereq | 247_034 | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_023 | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 231_046 | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_006 | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "20 years",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "20 years is acknowledged as a long time away",
"context": "So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.",
"to_year": 2046,
"verbatim": "So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.",
"conv_cues": "I think; don't think you're going to see",
"direction": "DOWN",
"from_year": 2046,
"timeframe": "By 2046 (20 years from 2026)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "China meets 40% EV new-vehicle sales share target",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest",
"expected_date": "2030-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2030-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "CAAM / IEA reports China new-vehicle EV+PHEV share ≥40% in calendar year"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "234_006",
"expected_date": "2033-07-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "240_028",
"expected_date": "2033-08-13",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "231_046",
"expected_date": "2033-09-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "233_014",
"expected_date": "2034-07-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "EU 2035 ICE-vehicle sales ban takes effect; US sales share reaches 20-30%",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-adoption-2030-goals",
"expected_date": "2035-01-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "EU regulation 2023/851 enforced for new passenger car sales; EIA/BloombergNEF reports US EV new-car sales share 20-30%"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "232_024",
"expected_date": "2036-07-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "236_019",
"expected_date": "2036-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"ki
... (truncated)