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244_029predictionEnergyAI-timing

Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
35.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2046-01-01 – 2046-10-31
Edges in / out
21 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 10 pending
  1. 2030-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingChina meets 40% EV new-vehicle sales share target
    How: CAAM / IEA reports China new-vehicle EV+PHEV share ≥40% in calendar year
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  2. 2035-01-01pendingEU 2035 ICE-vehicle sales ban takes effect; US sales share reaches 20-30%
    How: EU regulation 2023/851 enforced for new passenger car sales; EIA/BloombergNEF reports US EV new-car sales share 20-30%
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2040-01-01pendingBloombergNEF: EV share of new car sales globally exceeds 54% (2040 base case)
    How: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook reports global EV share of new car sales ≥54%
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2042-01-01 → 2046-10-31pendingICE share of GLOBAL light-duty new-vehicle sales drops below 25% (Khosrowshahi's 'largely gone' threshold)
    How: IEA Global EV Outlook reports new-vehicle ICE share <25% globally
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2044-01-01 → 2050-12-31pendingICE installed-base (existing vehicles) drops below 50% of global fleet — combustion engines 'largely gone' threshold
    How: IEA / WRI fleet data shows global ICE light-duty installed base <50% of total registered vehicles
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z35.4%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 36.4% → 35.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.4%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 38.3% → 36.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.3%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 41.4% → 38.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z41.4%-4.7pp
Network propagation: 46.1% → 41.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.1%-8.9pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 46.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.146
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.5500.050-0.137
prereq232_024
San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in aboAlex Wissner-Gross
34.3%0.5500.050-0.136
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.5500.050-0.136
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.121

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (21)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_005Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).AI/Infrastructure
prereq247_034Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq244_018In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesAuto/Transport
prereq244_023Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacementLabor/Jobs
prereq242_035S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq236_019Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerRobotics
prereq240_028Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsSpace
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq233_014Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.Biotech/Longevity
prereq231_046Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.AI
prereq234_006Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solvedAI
prereq246_042On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.AI
prereq232_024San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Macro/Economy
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "20 years is acknowledged as a long time away",
  "context": "So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.",
  "to_year": 2046,
  "verbatim": "So, I think 20 years from now, yeah. Uh I don't think you're going to see too much uh too many combustion engines, but 20 years is a long way away uh and the world is going to be a very, very different uh place by then.",
  "conv_cues": "I think; don't think you're going to see",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2046,
  "timeframe": "By 2046 (20 years from 2026)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "China meets 40% EV new-vehicle sales share target",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest",
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2030-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CAAM / IEA reports China new-vehicle EV+PHEV share ≥40% in calendar year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "234_006",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "240_028",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "231_046",
      "expected_date": "2033-09-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "233_014",
      "expected_date": "2034-07-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EU 2035 ICE-vehicle sales ban takes effect; US sales share reaches 20-30%",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-adoption-2030-goals",
      "expected_date": "2035-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EU regulation 2023/851 enforced for new passenger car sales; EIA/BloombergNEF reports US EV new-car sales share 20-30%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "232_024",
      "expected_date": "2036-07-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "236_019",
      "expected_date": "2036-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "ki
... (truncated)