Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.

Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | my mental model at this point is over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time.

my mental model at this point is over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "top 50 sci-fi plots",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "my mental model at this point is over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "my mental model at this point is over the next 10 years that's being very conservative as an outerbound we're going to live through the top 50 science fiction plots all happening at the same time.",
  "conv_cues": "very conservative; going to live through",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next 10 years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-generated synthetic media exceeds organic human-generated content on major platforms",
      "source": "EuropolEU 2030 deepfake projections",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta, TikTok, YouTube, or X internal data (or third-party measurement) shows >50% of viewed content is AI-generated; SimilarWeb / NewsGuard / Originality AI tracking"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First fully autonomous humanoid robot deployed in consumer households at scale (>100k units)",
      "source": "Figure 03 Helix; Tesla Optimus production roadmap",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2029-03-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla Optimus, Figure, 1X Neo, or peer ships >=100,000 units to non-employee consumers with full autonomous task completion verified by Consumer Reports or peer review"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Brain-computer interface receives FDA approval for non-medical (consumer/augmentation) use",
      "source": "Neuralink P1/P2 trial expansions",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA De Novo or P
... (truncated)