San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.

San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | if the trend continues, San Francisco will end up being the capital of the entire solar system in just, you know, about 10 years.

if the trend continues, San Francisco will end up being the capital of the entire solar system in just, you know, about 10 years.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Conditional, absent people fleeing tax situation",
  "context": "I was telling some people earlier that if the trend continues, San Francisco will end up being the capital of the entire solar system in just, you know, about 10 years.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "if the trend continues, San Francisco will end up being the capital of the entire solar system in just, you know, about 10 years.",
  "conv_cues": "if the trend continues",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "about 10 years",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SF AI startup funding share exceeds 50% of global AI VC",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://growthlist.co/san-francisco-startups/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "PitchBook/CB Insights data shows San Francisco metro AI VC inflows >=50% of global AI VC"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SF unicorn count crosses 250",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.failory.com/startups/san-francisco-unicorns",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CB Insights / PitchBook unicorn tracker shows >=250 SF-headquartered unicorns"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First AI-related US company crosses $1T market cap headquartered in SF",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
     
... (truncated)