Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).

Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | Stargate site milestones 2026-2027

Key catalyst: Stargate site milestones 2026-2027

Watch events: Stargate site groundbreaking announcements; OpenAI infrastructure spend disclosures

Stargate announced Jan 2025 with SoftBank/Oracle/MGX. Abilene TX site under construction Q4 2025. First buildings reportedly online 2026.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$500B",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "To support next-gen OpenAI models, Altman launched Stargate — a $500B multiyear capex initiative for geographically distributed training data centers.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "conv_cues": "aggressively maneuvered; multiyear; explicit figure",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "2025-2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stargate Abilene flagship OCI deployment fully operational on GB200",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/23/openai-first-data-center-in-500-billion-stargate-project-up-in-texas.html - Stargate first DC opens September 23, 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/23/openai-first-data-center-in-500-billion-stargate-project-up-in-texas.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-23",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Abilene flagship Stargate site formally opens, running Oracle Cloud Infrastructure with first-phase GB200 deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Five new Stargate sites announced bringing capacity to 7GW / $400B",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/ - Five new sites announced; combined ~7GW, >$400B over 3 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-23",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank publicly announce additional Stargate sites totaling near 7GW combined capacity and >$400B invested over 3 years"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-10-11",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stargate full $500B / 10GW commitment secured by end-2025",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/ - ahead of schedule for full $500B/10GW by end of 2025",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank confirm full $500B over 4 years and 10GW capacity commitments contractually secured by year-end 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Abilene remaining 6 buildings completed by mid-2026",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-advances-with-partnership-with-oracle/ - Oracle 4.5GW partnership, remaining 6 buildings mid-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-advances-with-partnership-with-oracle/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Oracle / OpenAI confirm completion of all 6 remaining Abilene buildings under 15-year lease for 450,000 GB200 GPUs"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "we
... (truncated)