10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now

10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | I think it'll be, you know, 10 plus different providers.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

I think it'll be, you know, 10 plus different providers.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10+ providers",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we're essentially going to have every single model, autonomous model on the network as well. So, I think it'll be, you know, 10 plus different providers.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "I think it'll be, you know, 10 plus different providers.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "10 years from 2026 (by ~2036)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo operates commercial robotaxi service in Los Angeles with ~700 vehicles",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/robotaxi-waymo-motional-zoox-tesla-uber-lyft/759895/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public Waymo disclosure or independent reporting confirming commercial robotaxi service is live in LA at scale"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "244_019",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Zoox launches commercial robotaxi service in Los Angeles via Uber app",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/waymo-amazon-zoox-tesla-robotaxi-expansion.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Zoox + Uber announcement confirms LA service launched (purpose-built or Highlander fleet) on Uber app"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "At least 5 distinct AV providers (Waymo, Zoox, Tesla, plus 2 of: Pony, WeRide, May
... (truncated)