S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028scenariorobotaxi_deployment
Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028
Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
45.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 17
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Waymo + Tesla + Cruise/Zoox combined operating in 100+ US cities.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_004 Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is — Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.169 |
| prereq | 236_042 Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemi — Salim Ismail | 43.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.160 |
| prereq | 242_014 Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, — Salim Ismail | 43.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.158 |
| prereq | 242_027 Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, n — Salim Ismail | 40.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.148 |
| prereq | 243_026 Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) — Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.143 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (17)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_026 | Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 236_042 | Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD matures | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_014 | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_040 | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_004 | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_027 | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_002 | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | INF_065 | Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers — starting with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Dallas. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_008 | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_022 | 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_034 | Autonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_014 | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Auto/Transport | — |
Linked documents (2)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.680 | manifold | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030? | 85% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.678 | manifold | Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 25,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030? | 72% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotaxi_phase_2",
"fork_key": "robotaxi",
"dimension": "robotaxi_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Robotaxi",
"family_order": 2
}