← Cockpit
243_026predictionAuto/TransportAI-timing

Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
44.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-082026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 8 pending
  1. 2025-06-10hitWayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK
    How: Joint Wayve-Uber press release announces public-road L4 autonomous vehicle trials in London with regulatory engagement
    Source: https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Major announcement on 2025-06-10. UK is largest market for Uber AV ambition.
  2. 2026-02-25hitWayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform
    How: Wayve announces Series D >=$1B with Uber, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Mercedes participation
    Source: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — $1.5B Series D confirmed Feb 2026 per Wayve press + CleanTechnica.
  3. 2025-06-10hitUber commits additional $300M to Wayve multi-year deployment
    How: Uber discloses additional capital commitment >=$250M to Wayve robotaxi deployment across >=10 markets
    Source: https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2025/Wayve-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-L4-Autonomy-Trials-in-the-UK/default.aspxconf 95%
  4. 2026-02-28hitWayve Series D $1.2-1.5B funding round announced (Microsoft/NVIDIA/Uber)
    How: Wayve announces Series D ≥$1.2B with Uber as participant
    Source: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Wayve closed $1.5B Series D with Microsoft, NVIDIA, Uber participating
  5. 2026-03-01 → 2026-06-30overdueSpring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences
    How: Wayve-powered Uber robotaxis begin paid or public-test rides on London streets without safety driver
    Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/conf 80%
  6. 2026-06-30pendingWayve + Uber Spring 2026 London robotaxi trial commences
    How: Wayve + Uber begin first L4 autonomous trial rides in London by end of Spring 2026
    Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/conf 85%
    Notes: Khosrowshahi referenced 'exciting announcements' from Wave (=Wayve); London trial is the leading candidate
  7. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUK Automated Vehicles Act enabling order published — robotaxi-legal status
    How: UK Department for Transport publishes secondary legislation under Automated Vehicles Act 2024 authorising commercial L4 deployment
    Source: https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/uk-driverless-car-wayve-funds-robotaxi-launchconf 75%
  8. 2026-10-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  9. 2026-12-31pendingNissan + Uber + Wayve Tokyo robotaxi pilot launches
    How: Nissan, Uber, and Wayve begin Tokyo pilot deployment using Wayve AI Driver
    Source: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 75%
  10. 2027-04-11pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  11. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK city
    How: Wayve-Uber service launches in a second UK city (Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh, etc.) post-London trial
    Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/10/wayve-and-uber-plan-london-robotaxi-launch-after-uk-speeds-up-autonomous-vehicle-rollout/conf 45%
  12. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWayve commercial robotaxi service expands to ≥3 UK cities
    How: Wayve commercial robotaxi service operational in ≥3 UK cities (incl. London) with Uber app integration
    Source: https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/10/wayve-and-uber-plan-london-robotaxi-launch-after-uk-speeds-up-autonomous-vehicle-rollout/conf 60%
  13. 2027-10-01pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z44.1%+1.6pp
Network propagation: 42.4% → 44.1%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z42.4%+3.2pp
Network propagation: 39.2% → 42.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.2%+6.2pp
Network propagation: 33.1% → 39.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z33.1%-5.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.331 blend=0.331 LLR=-0.223 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.9905529287115054,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.48290864961514074,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3815655256156503,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.55,
      "label": "Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "Wayve-powered Uber robotaxis begin paid or public-test rides on London streets without safety driver"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.30661294990194626,
  "outside_weight": 0.6933870500980537,
  "posterior_prob": 0.33050222304893345,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7059144590746311,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01047,
  "inside_posterior": 0.33050222304893345,
  "blended_posterior": 0.33050222304893345,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.2%+7.0pp
Network propagation: 31.1% → 38.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
milestone miss2026-05-01T22:09:22Z31.1%-22.8pp
54.0%(inside prior)31.1%(Bayes, κ=0.69)(no blend — node not linked)
2 milestones missed · 30d grace
Show missed milestones
  • LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2025-06-10
    Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK
  • LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2026-03-31
    Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z54.0%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 54.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.0%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028
Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028
45.0%0.6000.050-0.143
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.104
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.077
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600+0.049

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028robotaxi_deployment
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Expected milestones (5)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2025-06-10Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UKmissed
2026-03-31Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platformmissed
2026-06-30Uber commits additional $300M to Wayve multi-year deploymentpending
2026-06-30Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commencespending
2027-12-31Wayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK citypending

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.532edgar_8kLifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962)mentionspending2026-05-15
0.532edgar_8kLifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962)mentionspending2026-05-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "I do think there's real promise in in the UK and and and uh there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave",
  "verbatim": "there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.",
  "conv_cues": "there'll be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Coming soon",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK",
      "notes": "HIT — Major announcement on 2025-06-10. UK is largest market for Uber AV ambition.",
      "source": "https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/",
      "expected_date": "2025-06-10",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joint Wayve-Uber press release announces public-road L4 autonomous vehicle trials in London with regulatory engagement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform",
      "notes": "HIT — $1.5B Series D confirmed Feb 2026 per Wayve press + CleanTechnica.",
      "source": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
      "expected_date": "2025-08-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-03-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Wayve announces Series D >=$1B with Uber, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Mercedes participation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber commits additional $300M to Wayve multi-year deployment",
      "source": "https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2025/Wayve-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-L4-Autonomy-Trials-in-the-UK/default.aspx",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2025/Wayve-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-L4-Autonomy-Trials-in-the-UK/default.aspx",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2025-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber discloses additional capital commitment >=$250M to Wayve robotaxi deployment across >=10 markets"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wayve Series D $1.2-1.5B funding round announced (Microsoft/NVIDIA/Uber)",
      "notes": "HIT — Wayve closed $1.5B Series D with Microsoft, NVIDIA, Uber participating",
      "source": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Wayve announces Series D ≥$1.2B with Uber as participant"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences",
      "source": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/
... (truncated)