Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.
Verbatim quote
there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-06-10hitWayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UKHow: Joint Wayve-Uber press release announces public-road L4 autonomous vehicle trials in London with regulatory engagementSource: https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/conf 99%Notes: HIT — Major announcement on 2025-06-10. UK is largest market for Uber AV ambition.
- 2026-02-25hitWayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platformHow: Wayve announces Series D >=$1B with Uber, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Mercedes participationSource: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 99%Notes: HIT — $1.5B Series D confirmed Feb 2026 per Wayve press + CleanTechnica.
- 2025-06-10hitUber commits additional $300M to Wayve multi-year deploymentHow: Uber discloses additional capital commitment >=$250M to Wayve robotaxi deployment across >=10 marketsSource: https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2025/Wayve-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-L4-Autonomy-Trials-in-the-UK/default.aspxconf 95%
- 2026-02-28hitWayve Series D $1.2-1.5B funding round announced (Microsoft/NVIDIA/Uber)How: Wayve announces Series D ≥$1.2B with Uber as participantSource: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 95%Notes: HIT — Wayve closed $1.5B Series D with Microsoft, NVIDIA, Uber participating
- 2026-03-01 → 2026-06-30overdueSpring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commencesHow: Wayve-powered Uber robotaxis begin paid or public-test rides on London streets without safety driverSource: https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/conf 80%
- 2026-06-30pendingWayve + Uber Spring 2026 London robotaxi trial commencesHow: Wayve + Uber begin first L4 autonomous trial rides in London by end of Spring 2026Source: https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/conf 85%Notes: Khosrowshahi referenced 'exciting announcements' from Wave (=Wayve); London trial is the leading candidate
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUK Automated Vehicles Act enabling order published — robotaxi-legal statusHow: UK Department for Transport publishes secondary legislation under Automated Vehicles Act 2024 authorising commercial L4 deploymentSource: https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/uk-driverless-car-wayve-funds-robotaxi-launchconf 75%
- 2026-10-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-12-31pendingNissan + Uber + Wayve Tokyo robotaxi pilot launchesHow: Nissan, Uber, and Wayve begin Tokyo pilot deployment using Wayve AI DriverSource: https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/conf 75%
- 2027-04-11pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK cityHow: Wayve-Uber service launches in a second UK city (Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh, etc.) post-London trialSource: https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/10/wayve-and-uber-plan-london-robotaxi-launch-after-uk-speeds-up-autonomous-vehicle-rollout/conf 45%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWayve commercial robotaxi service expands to ≥3 UK citiesHow: Wayve commercial robotaxi service operational in ≥3 UK cities (incl. London) with Uber app integrationSource: https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/10/wayve-and-uber-plan-london-robotaxi-launch-after-uk-speeds-up-autonomous-vehicle-rollout/conf 60%
- 2027-10-01pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
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Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
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"kappa": 0.6875,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dara Khosrowshahi",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
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"inside_prior": 0.3815655256156503,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.55,
"label": "Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.22300580945949042,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "Wayve-powered Uber robotaxis begin paid or public-test rides on London streets without safety driver"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
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"reference_class_id": null,
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"predictor_n_resolved": 3
}Show missed milestones
- LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2025-06-10Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK
- LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2026-03-31Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | 45.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.143 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.104 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.077 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.049 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 | Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Expected milestones (5)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-10 | Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK | missed |
| 2026-03-31 | Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform | missed |
| 2026-06-30 | Uber commits additional $300M to Wayve multi-year deployment | pending |
| 2026-06-30 | Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences | pending |
| 2027-12-31 | Wayve robotaxi service expands beyond London to second UK city | pending |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.532 | edgar_8k | Lifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.532 | edgar_8k | Lifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I do think there's real promise in in the UK and and and uh there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave",
"verbatim": "there'll be some exciting announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners.",
"conv_cues": "there'll be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Coming soon",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Wayve + Uber announce L4 trial partnership for UK",
"notes": "HIT — Major announcement on 2025-06-10. UK is largest market for Uber AV ambition.",
"source": "https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -13,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://wayve.ai/press/wayve-uber-l4-autonomy-trials/",
"expected_date": "2025-06-10",
"observed_date": "2025-06-10",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joint Wayve-Uber press release announces public-road L4 autonomous vehicle trials in London with regulatory engagement"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Wayve closes $1.5B Series D to fund global autonomy platform",
"notes": "HIT — $1.5B Series D confirmed Feb 2026 per Wayve press + CleanTechnica.",
"source": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -12,
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"expected_date": "2025-08-16",
"observed_date": "2026-02-25",
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"expected_date_range": {
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"source": "https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2025/Wayve-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-L4-Autonomy-Trials-in-the-UK/default.aspx",
"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2025-12-15",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Wayve Series D $1.2-1.5B funding round announced (Microsoft/NVIDIA/Uber)",
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"source": "https://wayve.ai/press/series-d/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Spring 2026 London robotaxi public-road trial commences",
"source": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/uber-and-wayve-to-trial-london-robotaxis-in-spring-2026/",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
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"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/
... (truncated)