Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.
Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules
Verbatim quote
we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.
Resolution evidence
Uber announced 15-city autonomous partnership roadmap by end-2026 (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, Atlanta, Austin + Waymo partners). Waymo alone announced 20+ cities in 2026.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-05hitUber CEO publicly commits to 15-city autonomous goal on Q4 2025 earnings callHow: Khosrowshahi publicly states 15-city year-end-2026 robotaxi target on quarterly earnings callSource: Smart Cities Dive — Uber CEO outlines AV plansconf 99%Notes: HIT — Khosrowshahi publicly committed to 15 cities by year-end 2026 on Q4 2025 earnings call. Source claim itself is now confirmed.
- 2026-02-23hitUber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxisHow: Uber discloses ≥20 active AV partnerships including Waymo, Pony.ai, Verne, Wayve, Nissan, Momenta, Baidu, Avride, WeRide, May MobilitySource: TechCrunch — Uber wants to be a Swiss Army Knife for robotaxis (Feb 2026)conf 97%
- 2026-03-26hitUber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in ZagrebHow: Uber, Pony.ai, and Verne announce commercial robotaxi service launch starting in Zagreb, CroatiaSource: Uber Investor — Verne, Pony.ai, and Uber Partner to Launch Europe's First Commercial Robotaxi Serviceconf 99%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingUber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, ZurichHow: Uber publicly announces robotaxi service availability in Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, and ZurichSource: S&P Global — Mapping Uber's robotaxi technology advancements (April 2026)conf 70%
- 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and WayveHow: Uber + Nissan + Wayve commence robotaxi service or pilot in TokyoSource: Automotive World — Uber targets robotaxi services in ten countries in 2026conf 65%
- 2027-02-01 → 2027-03-15pendingUber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earningsHow: Q4 2026 earnings call confirms autonomous services live in ≥15 cities with active AV partnersSource: Investor calls quarterly disclosure patternconf 60%Notes: Direct measurement of headline claim. Khosrowshahi has publicly committed but execution risk in second half remains.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.102 |
| killer | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.085 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.208 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.146 |
| prereq | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today — Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.030 |
| prereq | 242_015 Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son get — Salim Ismail | 71.2% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.019 |
| prereq | 246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. — Peter Diamandis | 49.2% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.001 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 | Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 | Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_015 | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_031 | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Labor/Jobs | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Uber announced 15-city autonomous partnership roadmap by end-2026 (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, Atlanta, Austin + Waymo partners). Waymo alone announced 20+ cities in 2026. |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.624 | manifold | How many countries will I visit this year? (2026) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.601 | manifold | How many billionaires will New York City lose in 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "15 cities",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners. Uh and by 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.",
"conv_cues": "we'll be",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "End of 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber CEO publicly commits to 15-city autonomous goal on Q4 2025 earnings call",
"notes": "HIT — Khosrowshahi publicly committed to 15 cities by year-end 2026 on Q4 2025 earnings call. Source claim itself is now confirmed.",
"source": "Smart Cities Dive — Uber CEO outlines AV plans",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/uber-ceo-Khosrowshahi-av-robotaxi-plans/811321/",
"expected_date": "2026-02-05",
"observed_date": "2026-02-05",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Khosrowshahi publicly states 15-city year-end-2026 robotaxi target on quarterly earnings call"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxis",
"source": "TechCrunch — Uber wants to be a Swiss Army Knife for robotaxis (Feb 2026)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.97,
"source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/23/uber-autonomous-solutions-av-robotaxi-delivery-robots/",
"expected_date": "2026-02-23",
"observed_date": "2026-02-23",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Uber discloses ≥20 active AV partnerships including Waymo, Pony.ai, Verne, Wayve, Nissan, Momenta, Baidu, Avride, WeRide, May Mobility"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb",
"source": "Uber Investor — Verne, Pony.ai, and Uber Partner to Launch Europe's First Commercial Robotaxi Service",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Verne-Pony-ai-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-Europes-First-Commercial-Robotaxi-Service/default.aspx",
"expected_date": "2026-03-26",
"observed_date": "2026-03-26",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Uber, Pony.ai, and Verne announce commercial robotaxi service launch starting in Zagreb, Croatia"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"lab
... (truncated)