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243_002predictionAuto/Transportautonomous

Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
74.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Uber announced 15-city autonomous partnership roadmap by end-2026 (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, Atlanta, Austin + Waymo partners). Waymo alone announced 20+ cities in 2026.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 74.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-02-05hitUber CEO publicly commits to 15-city autonomous goal on Q4 2025 earnings call
    How: Khosrowshahi publicly states 15-city year-end-2026 robotaxi target on quarterly earnings call
    Source: Smart Cities Dive — Uber CEO outlines AV plansconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Khosrowshahi publicly committed to 15 cities by year-end 2026 on Q4 2025 earnings call. Source claim itself is now confirmed.
  2. 2026-02-23hitUber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxis
    How: Uber discloses ≥20 active AV partnerships including Waymo, Pony.ai, Verne, Wayve, Nissan, Momenta, Baidu, Avride, WeRide, May Mobility
    Source: TechCrunch — Uber wants to be a Swiss Army Knife for robotaxis (Feb 2026)conf 97%
  3. 2026-03-26hitUber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb
    How: Uber, Pony.ai, and Verne announce commercial robotaxi service launch starting in Zagreb, Croatia
    Source: Uber Investor — Verne, Pony.ai, and Uber Partner to Launch Europe's First Commercial Robotaxi Serviceconf 99%
  4. 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingUber expands autonomous services to Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, Zurich
    How: Uber publicly announces robotaxi service availability in Hong Kong, Houston, Madrid, and Zurich
    Source: S&P Global — Mapping Uber's robotaxi technology advancements (April 2026)conf 70%
  5. 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUber launches Tokyo robotaxi pilot with Nissan and Wayve
    How: Uber + Nissan + Wayve commence robotaxi service or pilot in Tokyo
    Source: Automotive World — Uber targets robotaxi services in ten countries in 2026conf 65%
  6. 2027-02-01 → 2027-03-15pendingUber discloses operating in 15+ cities with AV partners on Q4 2026 earnings
    How: Q4 2026 earnings call confirms autonomous services live in ≥15 cities with active AV partners
    Source: Investor calls quarterly disclosure patternconf 60%
    Notes: Direct measurement of headline claim. Khosrowshahi has publicly committed but execution risk in second half remains.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 75%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z74.8%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 76.6% → 74.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z76.6%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 79.7% → 76.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z79.7%-4.9pp
Network propagation: 84.7% → 79.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z84.7%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 87.8% → 84.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.102
killerTK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.085
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.9200.050-0.065
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.9200.050-0.052
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050-0.036

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050+0.208
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050+0.146
prereq243_031
Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than todayDara Khosrowshahi
46.3%0.6500.050+0.030
prereq242_015
Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son getSalim Ismail
71.2%0.9200.050-0.019
prereq246_039
Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Peter Diamandis
49.2%0.6500.050+0.001

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

INVZWRDLIDRAEVAMBLYPONYOUSTVRRMAMBAAURAIOTHSAIMBGAFBIDUBMWYYGMGOOGLHMCIOTQCOMTMTSLAUBERVWAGY

Adverse (5)

MCYALLCINFPGRTRV

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028robotaxi_deployment
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026robotaxi_deployment
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030robotaxi_deployment
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq242_015Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's licenseAuto/Transport
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_039Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Auto/Transport
prereq243_031Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USLabor/Jobs

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importUber announced 15-city autonomous partnership roadmap by end-2026 (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, Atlanta, Austin + Waymo partners). Waymo alone announced 20+ cities in 2026.

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.624manifoldHow many countries will I visit this year? (2026)mentionspending2026-05-17
0.601manifoldHow many billionaires will New York City lose in 2026?mentionspending2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "15 cities",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners. Uh and by 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll be",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "End of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber CEO publicly commits to 15-city autonomous goal on Q4 2025 earnings call",
      "notes": "HIT — Khosrowshahi publicly committed to 15 cities by year-end 2026 on Q4 2025 earnings call. Source claim itself is now confirmed.",
      "source": "Smart Cities Dive — Uber CEO outlines AV plans",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/uber-ceo-Khosrowshahi-av-robotaxi-plans/811321/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-05",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-05",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Khosrowshahi publicly states 15-city year-end-2026 robotaxi target on quarterly earnings call"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber confirms 20+ AV partnerships globally across freight, delivery, and robotaxis",
      "source": "TechCrunch — Uber wants to be a Swiss Army Knife for robotaxis (Feb 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/23/uber-autonomous-solutions-av-robotaxi-delivery-robots/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber discloses ≥20 active AV partnerships including Waymo, Pony.ai, Verne, Wayve, Nissan, Momenta, Baidu, Avride, WeRide, May Mobility"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber/Pony.ai/Verne launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb",
      "source": "Uber Investor — Verne, Pony.ai, and Uber Partner to Launch Europe's First Commercial Robotaxi Service",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Verne-Pony-ai-and-Uber-Partner-to-Launch-Europes-First-Commercial-Robotaxi-Service/default.aspx",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-26",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber, Pony.ai, and Verne announce commercial robotaxi service launch starting in Zagreb, Croatia"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "lab
... (truncated)