Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.

Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Well, they're coming 2028, baby.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Well, they're coming 2028, baby.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "autonomous vehicles and flying cars basically change the landscape of where you live, where you work. >> Yeah. Well, they're coming 2028, baby.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Well, they're coming 2028, baby.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Archer named official LA28 Olympics air-taxi provider",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/15/archer-olympics-air-taxi",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Archer Aviation announces LA28 partnership for Midnight eVTOL service in 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "244_013",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "241_050",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo robotaxi paid rides cross 1M/week",
      "source": "Waymo blog, Alphabet earnings",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
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      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo reports ≥1M paid robotaxi rides/week across U.S. metros"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "243_035",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "243_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "243_033",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Robotaxi unsupervised commercial service in ≥3 metros",
      "source": "Tesla quarterly updates, NHTSA filings",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
     
... (truncated)