Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)

Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | I don't think it's going to happen in the next 15 years. But certainly in the next 25 years, humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

I don't think it's going to happen in the next 15 years. But certainly in the next 25 years, humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "25 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Not in next 15 years, but within 25 years",
  "context": "I do think I don't think it's going to happen in the next 15 years. But certainly in the next 25 years, humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers. And then it's going to be up to regulators to decide what, you know, what a human license looks like.",
  "to_year": 2051,
  "verbatim": "I don't think it's going to happen in the next 15 years. But certainly in the next 25 years, humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers.",
  "conv_cues": "certainly",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2041,
  "timeframe": "By 2051 (within 25 years from 2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "242_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo (or other AV operator) crosses 100M cumulative rider-only paid miles",
      "source": "https://www.eweek.com/news/waymo-safety-stats/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo or competitor public statement/regulatory filing reports >=100,000,000 cumulative rider-only autonomous paid trip miles. Waymo at ~56M as of late 2025."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Peer-reviewed study confirms AV crash rate per mile <50% of human baseline at >=100M-mile sample",
      "source": "https://www.damfirm.com/waymo-accident-statistics.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Insurance industry report, NHTSA bulletin, or peer-reviewed study (RAND, IIHS) confirms statistically significant AV crash-per-mile rate reduction >=50% versus human baseline using >=100M miles of operations data"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030",
      "expected_date": "2030-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "230_018",
      "expected_date": "2031-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "242_035",
      "expected_date": "2033-06-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years",
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      "expected_date": "2033-08-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ord
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