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CINF

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Cap tier
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Approx cap
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Bull scenarios
0
Adverse scenarios
49
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 49 public links lack move; 0 lack probability

Bull scenarios (0)

Predictions where this ticker benefits
PredRoleDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactStatus
No data

Adverse scenarios (49)

Predictions where this ticker is displaced
PredDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactMechanism
243_002Auto/TransportUber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi74.8%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_020Auto/TransportNeed for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few yearsPeter Diamandis62.8%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
241_050AIAI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutionsEric Schmidt56.7%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
242_058Auto/TransportCybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleetsPeter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_035Auto/TransportAustin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national averageDara Khosrowshahi50.3%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
246_039Auto/TransportAutonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028.Peter Diamandis49.2%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_033Labor/JobsAbout 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annuallyDara Khosrowshahi48.9%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_003Auto/TransportRegulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks likeDara Khosrowshahi48.9%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_022Auto/TransportCost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferatesDara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_010Auto/TransportHuman drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup roleDara Khosrowshahi48.3%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_031EnergyUber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger realityDara Khosrowshahi48.2%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
245_016Biotech/LongevityKitrid disease is the leading extinction driver in frogs/amphibians and can be solved with genetic engineeringBen Lamm47.0%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_013Auto/TransportUber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the USDara Khosrowshahi47.0%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_005Auto/TransportThere will be many many winners in the autonomous spaceDara Khosrowshahi46.7%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_024Auto/TransportElectric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than owning a car (cited Diamandis research)Peter Diamandis46.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_031Labor/JobsUber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in USDara Khosrowshahi46.3%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_015Auto/TransportSoftware space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providersDara Khosrowshahi46.1%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
230_018Auto/TransportIn 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI.Peter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
242_002SpaceLong-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass driversPeter Diamandis45.8%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_017Auto/TransportIlia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass productionDara Khosrowshahi45.3%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_019Auto/TransportAutonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come downDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_020Auto/TransportAutonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries Uber operates in)Dara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_021Auto/TransportAutonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own carDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_023Auto/TransportAutonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and deliveryDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_001Auto/TransportAutonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_018Auto/TransportFleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due to 10+ year avg car lifeDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_025Auto/TransportMiddle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deploymentDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_012Auto/TransportLiability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_011Auto/TransportAutonomous driver will be much safer than a human beingDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_047Auto/TransportAutonomous revolution will have even more impact on society than UberDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_008Auto/TransportStreets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tiredDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_005Auto/TransportFewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horseDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_009Auto/TransportAutonomous insurance will have multiple layers: AV provider coverage plus additional layersDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_011Auto/TransportAutonomous transportation will eventually make transportation cheaperDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_007Auto/TransportAutonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplaceDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
236_042Auto/TransportInsurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD maturesSalim Ismail43.5%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_038Labor/JobsCapital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers)Dara Khosrowshahi43.5%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_034Auto/TransportAutonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human drivingDara Khosrowshahi41.8%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_017Auto/TransportCost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 yearsDara Khosrowshahi41.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_013Auto/TransportEvery new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous softwareDara Khosrowshahi41.0%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_010RoboticsMachines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance ratesDara Khosrowshahi40.9%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_036Auto/TransportPrice of rides will come down with autonomous drivingDara Khosrowshahi40.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_016Auto/TransportAutonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMsDara Khosrowshahi40.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_014Auto/Transport10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from nowDara Khosrowshahi39.5%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_037Labor/JobsDrivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehiclesDara Khosrowshahi39.3%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
244_002Auto/TransportHumans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15)Dara Khosrowshahi37.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
230_020Auto/TransportPeter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Peter Diamandis34.7%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
243_009Auto/TransportRegulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably superiorDara Khosrowshahi34.6%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.
246_033AIInsecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownAV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.