Autonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplace

Autonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplace | we think it's going to be another trillion-dollar marketplace

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

we think it's going to be another trillion-dollar marketplace

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1 trillion+ market",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "it's a big ecosystem that we're building and we're essentially working with everyone in that ecosystem. And we think it's going to be another trillion-dollar marketplace",
  "verbatim": "we think it's going to be another trillion-dollar marketplace",
  "conv_cues": "we think",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Future ecosystem",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo annualized rider-only ride volume exceeds 25M rides",
      "source": "TheDriverlessDigest 2025 review / Carbon Credits 2026 statistics",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/waymos-2025-year-in-review-the-year",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo public statement or Alphabet 10-K discloses weekly rides >500K (annualizes ~26M); fleet >3,500 vehicles per analyst forecasts"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First investor or analyst report values the autonomous mobility TAM at >=$1T",
      "source": "Khosrowshahi Trillion-dollar marketplace claim",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.understandingai.org/p/waymos-next-five-cities-are-all-in",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sell-side or strategy firm (McKinsey, BCG, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Ark Invest, BloombergNEF) publishes a dated TAM model showing >=$1T annual revenue potential for autonomous mobility / robotaxi by 2030-2035"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo plus Tesla combined commercial robotaxi presence in >=20 metro areas",
      "source": "Waymo 2026 expansion plan + Tesla 12-state target Q4 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/waymo-16-billion-robotaxi-expansion-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public count (company press + state DMV filings) of metro markets with paid driverless rides reaches >=20 across Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, May Mobility combined"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Combined US autonomous mobility commercial revenue exceeds $5B annualized",
      "source": "Waymo 157% YoY ride growth trajectory + Tesla unsupervised 12-state plan",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://carboncredits.com/waymo-hits-2500-robotaxi-in-u-s-the-future-of-driverless-rides/",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sum of Waymo (Alphabet 10-Q segment), Tesla Robotaxi (10-Q breakout if disclosed), Zoox/Amazon revenue disclosures yields >=$5B run rate from passenger AV services"
    },
    {
      "
... (truncated)