S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030scenariorobotaxi_deployment
Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 51
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Mass autonomous: significant share of urban transportation.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_006 Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financ — Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.266 |
| prereq | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today — Dave Blundin | 48.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.266 |
| prereq | 238_018 Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-drivi — Dave Blundin | 48.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.255 |
| prereq | 243_022 Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come u — Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.4% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.254 |
| prereq | 243_010 Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD back — Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.253 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (51)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 243_010 | Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_022 | Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferates | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 238_018 | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_021 | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_059 | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_031 | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_017 | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_020 | Autonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries Uber operates in) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_021 | Autonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own car | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_023 | Autonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and delivery | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_025 | Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_047 | Autonomous revolution will have even more impact on society than Uber | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_001 | Technology will always be a part of the human driving experience | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_005 | Fewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horse | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_009 | Autonomous insurance will have multiple layers: AV provider coverage plus additional layers | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_011 | Autonomous transportation will eventually make transportation cheaper | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_030 | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_001 | Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_005 | There will be many many winners in the autonomous space | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_006 | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_007 | Autonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplace | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_008 | Streets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tired | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_011 | Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_012 | Liability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_018 | Fleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due to 10+ year avg car life | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_019 | Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_009 | Regulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably superior | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_016 | Autonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMs | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_034 | Autonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_036 | Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_037 | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_015 | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_018 | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstraction | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| correlate | INF_065 | Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers — starting with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Dallas. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_002 | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | SPC_025 | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. | AI | — |
| correlate | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | INF_064 | Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 230_018 | In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_013 | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 244_002 | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_022 | 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | COD_AI_004 | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | AI | — |
| correlate | 243_014 | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_023 | Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling exponentially to over $1 trillion by 2040 — ~35x growth over 10 years as regulatory certification, manufacturing capacity, and urban vertiport infrastructure mature. | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | AUT_013 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | ROB_011 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotaxi_phase_3",
"fork_key": "robotaxi",
"dimension": "robotaxi_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Robotaxi",
"family_order": 3
}