Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role

Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role | there's no doubt that eventually the drivers are going to come out. The human drivers are going to come out.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

there's no doubt that eventually the drivers are going to come out. The human drivers are going to come out.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "most of those Teslas have a driver as well as a backup, but there's no doubt that eventually the drivers are going to come out. The human drivers are going to come out.",
  "verbatim": "there's no doubt that eventually the drivers are going to come out. The human drivers are going to come out.",
  "conv_cues": "no doubt; going to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Eventually",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla operates >=100 unsupervised Model Y robotaxis in single market",
      "source": "Tesla Austin 19 unsupervised vehicles trajectory 2025-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://insideevs.com/news/781782/tesla-removes-robotaxi-model-y-safety-driver-testing/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla earnings call disclosure or Texas/California DMV filing confirms single-city fleet size >=100 vehicles operating with no in-vehicle human, no remote teleoperator override per ride"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla launches consumer-vehicle Unsupervised FSD to retail customers",
      "source": "Tesla Q4 2026 unsupervised FSD on customer vehicles target",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-fsd-robotaxi-roadmap-q4-launch-12-states-europe",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla pushes OTA software update labeled 'FSD Unsupervised' to a retail customer in any US state; covered by Electrek/Reuters, with NHTSA non-objection or active investigation noted"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NHTSA closes FSD traffic-safety investigation without enforcement action",
      "source": "Electrek NHTSA second extension report Feb 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://electrek.co/2026/02/23/tesla-nhtsa-fsd-traffic-violation-investigation-second-extension/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation publishes closure letter for the FSD traffic-violation probe without ordering recall or removal of unsupervised feature; deadline currently March 9, 2026 with extensions"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cybercab production exceeds 5,000 units per quarter",
      "source": "Tesla Cybercab April 2026 mass production / TIMEWELL Inc. analysis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://timewell.jp/en/columns/tesla-cybercab",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla 10-Q or earnings deck shows quarterly Cyber
... (truncated)