TSLA
Tesla · Nasdaq · USA
Cap tier
Mega
Approx cap
$1500.0B
Bull scenarios
180
Adverse scenarios
7
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 187 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Themes & clusters
From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C9AV Fleet Financing (REIT-style ownership)AV Training Data Collection (pickup/dropoff labeling)AV-specific insurance layersActuators (vertically integrated)Application-Specific Chip DesignsCommercial Insurance for Gig DriversEV charging infrastructureEdge Inference Chip (Tesla/xAI custom)Factory automation / Gigafactory scale-outFleet Operations & Maintenance (robotaxi)Full-body closed-loop neural net policy (200 Hz)Grid-scale battery storageHumanoid robotsLithium battery pack priceOn-device inference (future target)Redundant Steering/Braking & Sensor Stack (OEM)Robotaxi / cyber cab insuranceStandardized AV APIsVision-Language-Action (VLA) model
Investment thesis
From SRC_B Company Master
Highest humanoid + robotaxi + energy optionality in one name.
Bull scenarios (180)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUT_008 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... | Dara Khosrowshahi | 75.5% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 243_002 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 74.8% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| FUT_010 | multi_vector | Energy | Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect... | Ramez Naam | 70.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| INF_005 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment operators, network technicians) will experience a boom driven by AI-factory construction — wages for network-technician and DC-construction roles have roughly doubled into the ... | Jensen Huang | 70.0% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 244_020 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Peter Diamandis | 62.8% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 246_008 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 62.4% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 229_001 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Brett Adcock | 62.3% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 234_014 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Peter Diamandis | 59.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| INF_059 | multi_vector | Energy | Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than substitution patterns — households simultaneously use solar panels (primarily for lighting), biomass, LPG, and grid power, reshaping land use and urbanization in peri-urban Afric... | Peter Dannenberg | 58.8% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 241_050 | multi_vector | AI | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions | Eric Schmidt | 56.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_002 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Brett Adcock | 56.1% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 235_028 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. | Peter Diamandis | 55.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 245_042 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Synthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion) | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_003 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_017 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Self-driving vehicles and autonomous systems will begin completely replacing human gig workers within 10-15 years — a major societal challenge for millions of drivers reliant on ride-share platforms, necessitating new paradigms for on-demand, AI-assist... | Dara Khosrowshahi | 54.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| INF_063 | multi_vector | Energy | Advancing sustainable, high-capacity battery storage is the only mechanism to capture "negative power prices" (European peak solar/wind oversupply forcing producers to pay to offload) and ensure the economic viability of renewable energy developers. | Morgan Stanley | 54.4% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 236_008 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online | Peter Diamandis | 53.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_025 | multi_vector | Energy | Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentivizes wider adoption, increases global manufacturing volumes, drives prices down further along Wright's curve. Political independence means energy transition continues regardless... | Ramez Naam | 52.3% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| INF_066 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | EV charging will totally bifurcate: consumer charging becomes localized and invisible (residential solar-to-battery systems), while commercial fleet charging evolves into high-throughput automated industrial depots drawing massive simultaneous power lo... | Dara Khosrowshahi | 51.8% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| INF_058 | multi_vector | Energy | The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... | Andrew Yang | 51.5% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 242_058 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | Peter Diamandis | 51.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_035 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_007 | multi_vector | AI | Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_030 | multi_vector | AI | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | Andrew Yang | 49.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_039 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Peter Diamandis | 49.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_027 | multi_vector | Robotics | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_033 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_003 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_003 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company | Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_022 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferates | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_010 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Human drivers will eventually be removed from Tesla FSD backup role | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_031 | multi_vector | Energy | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_028 | multi_vector | Geopolitics | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed | Eric Schmidt | 47.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_045 | multi_vector | Energy | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon Musk | 47.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_021 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Eric Schmidt | 47.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 245_016 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Kitrid disease is the leading extinction driver in frogs/amphibians and can be solved with genetic engineering | Ben Lamm | 47.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_013 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | Dara Khosrowshahi | 47.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 238_011 | multi_vector | AI | Frontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion) | Peter Diamandis | 46.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_005 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | There will be many many winners in the autonomous space | Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_024 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Electric autonomous cars could be four times cheaper than owning a car (cited Diamandis research) | Peter Diamandis | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_031 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_015 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers | Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_001 | multi_vector | AI | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | Peter Diamandis | 46.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_018 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. | Peter Diamandis | 46.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_003 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 242_002 | multi_vector | Space | Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers | Peter Diamandis | 45.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_017 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production | Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_011 | multi_vector | Energy | By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... | Ramez Naam | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 238_016 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Peter Diamandis | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_021 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous cars will make it not sensible to own your own car | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_011 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous transportation will eventually make transportation cheaper | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_009 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous insurance will have multiple layers: AV provider coverage plus additional layers | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_005 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Fewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horse | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_047 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous revolution will have even more impact on society than Uber | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_025 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_023 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous is enormous opportunity for TAM expansion across mobility and delivery | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_020 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous will take a while to penetrate developing markets (70+ countries Uber operates in) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_019 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_018 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Fleet turnover from human-driven to autonomous will take a very long time due to 10+ year avg car life | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_001 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_007 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous mobility will become another trillion-dollar marketplace | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_008 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Streets will be safer as autonomous cars don't get distracted or tired | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_011 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_012 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Liability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous driving | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_061 | multi_vector | Robotics | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) | Eric Schmidt | 44.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_008 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Brett Adcock | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_013 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... | Ramez Naam | 43.6% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 236_042 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Insurance underwriting will flip from driver risk to systemic risk as FSD matures | Salim Ismail | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_038 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 232_038 | multi_vector | Space | Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_016 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Elon Musk | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_007 | multi_vector | AI | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system | Elon Musk | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_033 | multi_vector | Robotics | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Elon Musk | 42.8% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 246_010 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 245_004 | multi_vector | Consumer | EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually | EY (Ernst & Young) | 42.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 245_023 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunity | Ben Lamm | 42.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_041 | multi_vector | Robotics | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Brett Adcock | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 238_015 | multi_vector | Robotics | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Brent Bornick | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_009 | multi_vector | Geopolitics | Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... | Peter Zeihan | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| INF_060 | multi_vector | Energy | Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 — signaling a definitive paradigm shift away from lithium as the sole foundational element of global energy storage. | Elon Musk | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | partial |
| 243_034 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human driving | Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_017 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_013 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_010 | multi_vector | Robotics | Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance rates | Dara Khosrowshahi | 40.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_027 | multi_vector | Geopolitics | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. | Brett Adcock | 40.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_016 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Autonomous will remain a very large fragmented industry, like OEMs | Dara Khosrowshahi | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_036 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving | Dara Khosrowshahi | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_009 | multi_vector | Robotics | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Brett Adcock | 40.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_033 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Brett Adcock | 40.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_015 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Elon Musk | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| INF_061 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Within approximately 10 years, battery chemistry and pack architecture advances (anchored by CATL Shenxing Pro) will yield electric vehicles traveling ~1,000 miles on a single charge with charging times of ~30-45 minutes. | CATL | 40.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_020 | multi_vector | Robotics | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Peter Diamandis | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_014 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Dara Khosrowshahi | 39.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_029 | multi_vector | AI | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on Earth | Elon Musk | 39.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_027 | multi_vector | AI | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 245_022 | multi_vector | Macro/Economy | Gene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunity | Ben Lamm | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_037 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Dara Khosrowshahi | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_034 | multi_vector | Robotics | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Brett Adcock | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_042 | multi_vector | Robotics | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Salim Ismail | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_045 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Salim Ismail | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_016 | multi_vector | AI | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_018 | multi_vector | Energy | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 236_022 | multi_vector | Robotics | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Andrew Yang | 38.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_031 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_040 | multi_vector | Real Estate | Elon predicts FSD and Starlink may reverse urbanization in America | Elon Musk | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_022 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. | Brett Adcock | 38.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_031 | multi_vector | Robotics | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. | Brett Adcock | 38.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_023 | multi_vector | Robotics | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Brett Adcock | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_012 | multi_vector | Robotics | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 244_002 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_051 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| INF_025 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Brett Adcock | 37.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_008 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Morgan Stanley | 37.1% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| CMQ_051 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla | 37.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_016 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. | Brett Adcock | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_021 | multi_vector | Robotics | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Brett Adcock | 36.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_041 | multi_vector | Other | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' | Brett Adcock | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_013 | multi_vector | Robotics | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_005 | multi_vector | Robotics | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Brett Adcock | 36.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_021 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Peter Diamandis | 36.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_049 | multi_vector | Space | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 233_013 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Joe Liemandt | 35.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_044 | multi_vector | AI | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | Brett Adcock | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_018 | multi_vector | AI | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| AI_030 | multi_vector | Robotics | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Brett Adcock | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_014 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. | Brett Adcock | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_038 | multi_vector | Labor/Jobs | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Jason Calacanis | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_030 | multi_vector | Geopolitics | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 230_020 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_009 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Regulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably superior | Dara Khosrowshahi | 34.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_033 | multi_vector | AI | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 248_038 | multi_vector | Robotics | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Salim Ismail | 34.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_017 | multi_vector | Robotics | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 34.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| COD_ROB_003 | multi_vector | Robotics | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Codex Research Pack | 33.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_029 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. | Brett Adcock | 33.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_014 | multi_vector | Robotics | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Elon Musk | 32.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_045 | multi_vector | Robotics | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 32.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 246_009 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_056 | multi_vector | Robotics | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Peter Diamandis | 31.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| FUT_019 | multi_vector | Biotech/Longevity | Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 31.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| COD_ROB_001 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 243_030 | multi_vector | Robotics | Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots | Dara Khosrowshahi | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_002 | multi_vector | Robotics | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_020 | multi_vector | Robotics | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Andrew Yang | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_012 | multi_vector | Robotics | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Elon Musk | 30.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_019 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. | Brett Adcock | 30.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_009 | multi_vector | Economy | The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). | Mark Cuban | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_055 | multi_vector | Robotics | Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. | Brett Adcock | 29.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| 235_020 | multi_vector | Robotics | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_032 | multi_vector | Robotics | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.6% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_018 | multi_vector | Robotics | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 28.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_039 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. | Brett Adcock | 28.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_046 | multi_vector | Robotics | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. | Brett Adcock | 28.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_045 | multi_vector | Robotics | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. | Brett Adcock | 28.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_044 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Mark Cuban | 28.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 241_029 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 247_043 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_010 | multi_vector | Robotics | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Brett Adcock | 25.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 236_021 | multi_vector | Robotics | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Elon Musk | 24.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 240_037 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 234_033 | multi_vector | Robotics | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | David Holz | 23.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_007 | multi_vector | AI/Strategy | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. | Sam Altman | 23.2% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 239_011 | multi_vector | Robotics | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Elon Musk | 22.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_052 | multi_vector | Robotics | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. | Brett Adcock | 22.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_023 | multi_vector | Robotics | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy graduates from pilot programs to municipal public utilities by 2026; rupture of psychological firewall between humans and synthetic minds; AI soon optimizes its o... | Alex Wissner-Gross | 22.0% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| CMQ_054 | multi_vector | Macro/Economy | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Elon Musk | 21.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_037 | multi_vector | Energy | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. | Peter Diamandis | 20.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_020 | multi_vector | Robotics | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Brett Adcock | 20.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_035 | multi_vector | Space | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets. | Brett Adcock | 20.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_007 | multi_vector | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. | Chamath Palihapitiya | 19.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| CMQ_056 | multi_vector | AI/Compute | Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. | Dario Amodei | 18.9% | unknown | unknown | in_progress |
| ROB_009 | multi_vector | Robotics | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... | Elon Musk | 18.5% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 229_030 | multi_vector | Robotics | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Brett Adcock | 17.1% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_032 | multi_vector | Robotics | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Elon Musk | 16.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| AUT_013 | multi_vector | Auto/Transport | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... | Elon Musk | 15.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| 235_019 | multi_vector | Robotics | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| IND_017 | multi_vector | Macro/Economy | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... | Peter Diamandis | 11.4% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| ROB_011 | multi_vector | Space | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomous robotics in extraterrestrial colonization and intertwining robotic + interplanetary expansion; robotic precursors precede biological humans in planetary exploration. | Elon Musk | 11.3% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SEM_010 | multi_vector | Macro/Economy | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Jensen Huang | 8.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
| SPC_011 | multi_vector | Space | Lunar-surface factories leveraging local resources will manufacture satellites and deploy them directly into deep space via electromagnetic mass drivers — scaling to 500-1000 Terawatts/year of AI data centers in space, allowing humanity to 'meaningfull... | Elon Musk | 5.0% | unknown | unknown | pending |
Adverse scenarios (7)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPC_019 | Geopolitics | Aerospace-sector manufacturing base is being aggressively reoriented away from China — reflecting a new 'metageography of development' where national actors secure critical aerospace supply chains (tungsten, copper, rare earths) via political borders a... | Peter Dannenberg | 71.8% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| FUT_023 | Geopolitics | 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... | Ian Bremmer | 68.1% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| ROB_021 | Geopolitics | The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China operates with 'incredible speed at massive scale' in hardware-heavy sectors (advanced batteries, high-speed rail, commercial robotics); failure to digitize the industr... | Marc Andreessen | 66.6% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| INF_013 | Energy | Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow... | Morgan Stanley | 59.1% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| INF_037 | Geopolitics | An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 58.4% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| INF_004 | Geopolitics | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty awaiting compute — such that if export controls relax or are bypassed, China has near-immediate physical capacity to train frontier models equivalent to Anth... | Jensen Huang | 38.9% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |
| FUT_008 | Geopolitics | China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... | Peter Zeihan | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | US-China decoupling disrupts supply chain + China revenue streams. |