Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.
Verbatim quote
Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only. No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.058 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.038 |
| killer | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.030 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.018 |
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.014 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
| killer | TK12 | Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | edgar_8k | PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.574 | edgar_8k | TERADYNE, INC (TER) (CIK 0000097210) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.568 | edgar_8k | LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.568 | edgar_8k | LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.560 | edgar_8k | Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.559 | edgar_8k | DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC (DY) (CIK 0000067215) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | CHEMED CORP (CHE) (CIK 0000019584) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.519 | edgar_8k | CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) (CIK 0000026324) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$1T",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.",
"conv_cues": "perilously close",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term 2026",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "235_031",
"expected_date": "2026-06-21",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Stocks",
"affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 235,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-06-21",
"episode_date": "2026-03-05",
"parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
"domain_bucket": "Markets",
"episode_title": "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F005",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "235",
"consensus_size": 9,
"is_macro_claim": true,
"macro_span_end": "2031-03",
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C10",
"C5",
"C6",
"C8"
],
"active_end_month": "2031-03",
"macro_span_start": "2026-04",
"cluster_avg_grade": 4.57,
"months_from_today": 2,
"repeat_cluster_id": "C006",
"active_start_month": "2026-04",
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"track_record_grade": "B-",
"track_record_notes": "Physicist and creative thinker. Dyson-swarm, lunar-disassembly, data-centers-in-orbit claims are highly speculative; directionally onto something real (Starcloud, Suncatcher, SpaceX orbital AI) but specific structural predictions should be discounted heavily.",
"flag_near_term_2027": true,
"flag_high_conviction": false,
"milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-02T02:07:05.242283+00:00",
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:49.061881+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"top_n": [
{
"id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"cosine": 0.6125
}
],
"margin": 0.6125,
"best_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"decision": "assigned",
"second_id": null,
"threshold": 0.55,
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_similarity": 0.6125,
"margin_required": 0.05,
"second_similarity": null
},
"validation_status_raw": "UNRESEARCHED",
"composite_signal_score": 13.5,
"flag_priority_watchlist": true,
"flag_timeline_near_term": true,
"cluster_convergent_target": 2031,
"ps_displacement_mechanism": "Dalio-style sovereign debt-cycle climax drives rate volatility + dollar regime risk; long-duration USD bonds and levered credit face structural drawdown scenario."
}