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235_031predictionMarkets/Stocks$100T

Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
38.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
5 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. | Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.613

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 38.8% → blend 38.8% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only. No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.8%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 40.2% → 38.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 43.0% → 40.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.0%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 43.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z48.5%+5.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.450 blend=0.485 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z43.0%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 43.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z48.5%+3.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.450 blend=0.485 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.450-0.058
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.450-0.038
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.450+0.030
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.018
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.450+0.014

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRCLIRBTRIOTMARASYMFANUYNVDABBAIGTLBAIABBNYAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAXYZ

Adverse (5)

HYGEMBMUBTLTLQD

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.588edgar_8kPFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.575edgar_8kLumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)mentionspending2026-06-01
0.575edgar_8kLumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.574edgar_8kTERADYNE, INC (TER) (CIK 0000097210)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.568edgar_8kLiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)mentionspending2026-05-13
0.568edgar_8kLiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)mentionspending2026-05-18
0.560edgar_8kAstera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.559edgar_8kDYCOM INDUSTRIES INC (DY) (CIK 0000067215)mentionspending2026-06-01
0.538edgar_8kCHEMED CORP (CHE) (CIK 0000019584)mentionspending2026-05-19
0.519edgar_8kCURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) (CIK 0000026324)mentionspending2026-05-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1T",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Their market cap, just for what it's worth, as we're recording, they're knocking on a trillion dollar market cap. Eli Lilly's market cap is about 950 billion. So perilously close.",
  "conv_cues": "perilously close",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_031",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Stocks",
  "affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 235,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-06-21",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-05",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
  "domain_bucket": "Markets",
  "episode_title": "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F005",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "235",
  "consensus_size": 9,
  "is_macro_claim": true,
  "macro_span_end": "2031-03",
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C10",
    "C5",
    "C6",
    "C8"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2031-03",
  "macro_span_start": "2026-04",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.57,
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C006",
  "active_start_month": "2026-04",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "B-",
  "track_record_notes": "Physicist and creative thinker. Dyson-swarm, lunar-disassembly, data-centers-in-orbit claims are highly speculative; directionally onto something real (Starcloud, Suncatcher, SpaceX orbital AI) but specific structural predictions should be discounted heavily.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-02T02:07:05.242283+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:49.061881+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "top_n": [
      {
        "id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
        "cosine": 0.6125
      }
    ],
    "margin": 0.6125,
    "best_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
    "decision": "assigned",
    "second_id": null,
    "threshold": 0.55,
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_similarity": 0.6125,
    "margin_required": 0.05,
    "second_similarity": null
  },
  "validation_status_raw": "UNRESEARCHED",
  "composite_signal_score": 13.5,
  "flag_priority_watchlist": true,
  "flag_timeline_near_term": true,
  "cluster_convergent_target": 2031,
  "ps_displacement_mechanism": "Dalio-style sovereign debt-cycle climax drives rate volatility + dollar regime risk; long-duration USD bonds and levered credit face structural drawdown scenario."
}