← Cockpit
229_021predictionRoboticshumanoids

In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
36.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-08-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.642

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 36.9% → blend 36.9% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 36.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-10-09hitFigure 03 announced as $20K home-focused humanoid (Helix AI)
    How: Figure announces 03 hardware design at $20K target price, marketed for household tasks; per Time / Humanoids Daily / Figure press release
    Source: https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-reviewconf 95%
  2. 2025-10-15hitBrett Adcock confirms Figure 03 home alpha-testing in 2026
    How: Adcock public statement (X, Time interview, conference talk) confirms select home deployments / alpha tests beginning in 2026
    Source: https://www.emarketer.com/content/figure-ai-testing-humanoid-robots-homesconf 95%
  3. 2026-03-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacity
    How: Figure / Sourcery.vc / Humanoids Daily confirms BotQ annualized run rate reaches >=10,000 units/year — verifying scale needed for home shipping
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturingconf 80%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst Figure 03 unit ships to non-employee paying alpha customer (home)
    How: Figure announcement / customer interview confirms a Figure 03 has been delivered to a paying (or invited) non-employee household for alpha testing — distinct from employee/internal testing
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/inside-the-campus-figure-s-plan-for-24-7-autonomy-and-leasable-home-robotsconf 70%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-08-31pendingFigure publishes home-deployment intervention rate / autonomy benchmark
    How: Figure publishes blog or paper documenting human-intervention rate for home tasks (laundry, dishes, cleaning) — measurement Adcock specifically cited as iteration loop
    Source: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/figures-general-purpose-robot-whyconf 60%
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Figure achieves >=100 home alpha deployments by EOY 2027
    How: Figure announcement / industry tracker (humanoidintel.ai, Humanoids Daily) confirms cumulative home alpha-testing deployments >=100 separate households
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomyconf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 37%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z36.9%+1.2pp
Network propagation: 35.6% → 36.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.6%+2.7pp
Network propagation: 33.0% → 35.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z33.0%+5.4pp
Network propagation: 27.5% → 33.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z27.5%+9.9pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 27.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z17.7%-10.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z28.4%+10.7pp
Network propagation: 17.7% → 28.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z17.7%-32.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.177 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.500+0.032
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050+0.024
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.020
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050+0.016
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5000.050+0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_020
Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobsAlex Wissner-Gross
28.7%0.4500.050-0.087
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.044
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.023
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050-0.022
prereq235_032
Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Elon Musk
16.3%0.3500.050-0.001

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq235_020Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.Robotics
prereq235_032Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Robotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Robotics 2027-12] ume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_021] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_026] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment countpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.728manifoldHumanoid robot walking around me within a year?14%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.704manifoldHumanoid robot walking around me within three years?43%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.666manifoldWill I make USAMO in 202737%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.648manifoldWill a bot win prize drawing this year?37%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.626manifoldWill Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?86%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.601manifoldWhere will I live in October 2026?mentionspending2026-04-24
0.590manifoldWill I qualify for the 2027 USA TST46%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.586manifoldHow will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?mentionspending2026-04-24
0.584manifoldWill there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?31%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.581manifoldWill the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?32%mentionspending2026-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "I think we'd be on the path of solving general robotics. And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "And then I think next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes and start like making sure they work well.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "next year (2027)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 announced as $20K home-focused humanoid (Helix AI)",
      "source": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-review",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2025-10-09",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-09",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces 03 hardware design at $20K target price, marketed for household tasks; per Time / Humanoids Daily / Figure press release"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Brett Adcock confirms Figure 03 home alpha-testing in 2026",
      "source": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/figure-ai-testing-humanoid-robots-homes",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2025-10-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Adcock public statement (X, Time interview, conference talk) confirms select home deployments / alpha tests beginning in 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure BotQ production line ramps to 12,000 units/year capacity",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-03-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure / Sourcery.vc / Humanoids 
... (truncated)