S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030scenariohumanoid_deployment
Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030
Prior probability
20.0%
Current probability
20.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 48
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Consumer-grade deployment. Requires breakthroughs in safety, cost (sub-$20K), reliability. Aspirational.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
Linked
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 20%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to — Brett Adcock | 69.2% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.468 |
| prereq | 246_055 We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after somet — Dave Blundin | 44.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.276 |
| prereq | 244_010 Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with hi — Dara Khosrowshahi | 40.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.249 |
| prereq | 243_039 Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipli — Dara Khosrowshahi | 39.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.241 |
| prereq | 229_041 Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it w — Brett Adcock | 36.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.217 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (48)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_028 | Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_020 | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_002 | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 244_010 | Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance rates | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 243_030 | Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 243_039 | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_017 | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_039 | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_041 | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' | Other | — |
| prereq | 229_018 | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_029 | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_047 | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_032 | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CYB_018 | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_056 | Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | CMQ_050 | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | INF_001 | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. | AI | — |
| correlate | 229_005 | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_012 | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_045 | Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. | Semis | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_003 | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_005 | Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_001 | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 229_021 | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_007 | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitioning from retrieval to reasoning/agentic AI — however the subsequent wave, 'Physical AI' for industrial and robotics applications, represents a vastly larger $50 trilli... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | IND_023 | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy graduates from pilot programs to municipal public utilities by 2026; rupture of psychological firewall between humans and synthetic minds; AI soon optimizes its o... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_008 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_052 | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_025 | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | INF_023 | Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and robotic-assembly systems with minimal human intervention — necessary because human labor supply is insufficient to build at trillion-dollar buildout velocity. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_051 | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_009 | The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). | Economy | — |
| correlate | AI_030 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AI_007 | Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_054 | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | INF_009 | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_013 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... | Auto/Transport | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotics_phase_r3",
"fork_key": "humanoid",
"dimension": "humanoid_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Humanoid deployment",
"family_order": 3,
"cumulative_milestone": true
}