Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance rates

Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance rates | With machines again, they're not only be predictable, but they will have kind of acceptance rates that we think are much higher than humans as well.

With machines again, they're not only be predictable, but they will have kind of acceptance rates that we think are much higher than humans as well.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "With machines again, they're not only be predictable, but they will have kind of acceptance rates that we think are much higher than humans as well. So of course there will be a coordination problem.",
  "verbatim": "With machines again, they're not only be predictable, but they will have kind of acceptance rates that we think are much higher than humans as well.",
  "conv_cues": "we think; much higher",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "Near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotaxi consumer comfort jumps from 35% to 63% in active markets",
      "notes": "HIT — 80% YoY jump in acceptance is the canonical Khosrowshahi signal.",
      "source": "https://singularityhub.com/2026/02/02/waymo-closes-in-on-uber-and-lyft-prices-as-more-riders-say-they-trust-robotaxis/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://singularityhub.com/2026/02/02/waymo-closes-in-on-uber-and-lyft-prices-as-more-riders-say-they-trust-robotaxis/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent survey (e.g. Obi) shows 63% of adults in robotaxi-served areas comfortable/somewhat-comfortable with self-driving cars, up from 35%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Riders who have used a robotaxi report 76% confidence vs 20% for non-users",
      "notes": "HIT — direct evidence machines are gaining 'higher acceptance rates' than perception of human drivers.",
      "source": "https://singularityhub.com/2026/02/02/waymo-closes-in-on-uber-and-lyft-prices-as-more-riders-say-they-trust-robotaxis/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://singularityhub.com/2026/02/02/waymo-closes-in-on-uber-and-lyft-prices-as-more-riders-say-they-trust-robotaxis/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Survey shows 56-point gap in confidence between robotaxi users (76%) and non-users (20%)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo provides 500K paid rides/week, on path to 1M/week by end-2026",
      "notes": "HIT — 10x ridership growth in <2 years is revealed-preference acceptance, stronger than survey.",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/27/waymo-skyrocketing-ridership-in-one-chart/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/27/waymo-skyrocketing-ridership-in-one-chart/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo reports paid robotaxi ride volume of 500K/week across 10+ US cities, with target of 1M/week by end of 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-11-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Survey-based AV trust crosses 80% in major US robotaxi markets",
      "source": "Trend from 35% (2024) → 63% (Feb 2026) extrapolated",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
     
... (truncated)