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247_027predictionAI$100T

Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
39.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | some sort of product or functionality that has shaped something like a better version of openclaw is probably going to be the next major unhobling that motivates the industry and the the world frankly to spend on the order of a trillion dollars per year on a single frontier vendor

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
some sort of product or functionality that has shaped something like a better version of openclaw is probably going to be the next major unhobling that motivates the industry and the the world frankly to spend on the order of a trillion dollars per year on a single frontier vendor

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.564

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 39.4% → blend 39.4% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSingle hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capex
    How: MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META 10-K or earnings disclose annual AI infrastructure capex >$200B.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingSingle AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300B
    How: Multi-year purchase commitment from one buyer to one vendor (e.g., OpenAI-Oracle, Anthropic-Google) crosses $300B headline.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  3. 2026-12-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAnnualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500B
    How: Disclosed quarterly purchases imply annualized vendor-specific spend >=$500B.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2027-06-19pendingFirst public $1T-class AI vendor spend headline
    How: WSJ/FT/Bloomberg/Reuters tier headline cites a single buyer-vendor relationship reaching $1T order-of-magnitude annual spend.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.4%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 40.6% → 39.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.6%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 43.0% → 40.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.0%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 43.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z48.5%+5.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.450 blend=0.485 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z43.0%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 43.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z48.5%+3.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.450 blend=0.485 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.450-0.064
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.450-0.044
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.024
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.450+0.024
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.450+0.008

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRCLIRBTRIOTMARASYMFANUYNVDABBAIGTLBAIABBNYAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAXYZ

Adverse (5)

HYGEMBMUBTLTLQD

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1 trillion/year",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "motivates the industry and the world frankly to spend on the order of a trillion dollars per year on a single frontier vendor",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "some sort of product or functionality that has shaped something like a better version of openclaw is probably going to be the next major unhobling that motivates the industry and the the world frankly to spend on the order of a trillion dollars per year on a single frontier vendor",
  "conv_cues": "probably going to",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Single hyperscaler discloses >$200B annual AI capex",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META 10-K or earnings disclose annual AI infrastructure capex >$200B."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Single AI-customer commitment to one vendor exceeds $300B",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Multi-year purchase commitment from one buyer to one vendor (e.g., OpenAI-Oracle, Anthropic-Google) crosses $300B headline."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Annualized run-rate spend by one buyer to one vendor crosses $500B",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
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      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Disclosed quarterly purchases imply annualized vendor-specific spend >=$500B."
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_027",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First public $1T-class AI vendor spend headline",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.25,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-19",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "WSJ/FT/Bloomberg/Reuters tier headline cites a single buyer-vendor relationship reaching $1T order-of-magnitude annual spend."
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 2,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "target_date": "2027-06-15",
  "display_date": "2027-06-19",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2027-2027",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F005",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "246, 247",
  "consensus_size": 9,
  "is_macro_claim": true,
  "macro_span_end": "2031-03",
  "total_mentions": 2,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C10",
    "C5",
   
... (truncated)