← Cockpit
229_026predictionRoboticsAI-scaling

By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
38.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
13 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | So I think we'll see like we're trying to push and continue to pull ahead but I think hopefully by next year by next year we can basically really show like real general purpose inside of the robot. Maybe even as soon as this year like um I mean listen it could happen in a couple months.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
So I think we'll see like we're trying to push and continue to pull ahead but I think hopefully by next year by next year we can basically really show like real general purpose inside of the robot. Maybe even as soon as this year like um I mean listen it could happen in a couple months.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.630

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 38.5% → blend 38.5% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-31hitFigure ships >1 humanoid per hour rate, 350+ Figure 02 units delivered (24x ramp in 4 months)
    How: Public Figure announcement or press confirming production cadence ≥ 1 robot/hour and cumulative deliveries ≥ 350
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  2. 2026-06-30pendingFigure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks)
    How: Demo video or technical post documenting ≥4 hr continuous autonomous operation across logistics/kitchen/manufacturing without human intervention
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-02-28pendingFigure 03 (next-gen platform) public unveil or technical preview
    How: Figure publishes new robot generation reveal (Figure 03 or successor) showing improvements over Figure 02 form factor
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure demonstrates multi-task generalization in an unseen home environment for ≥ 1 day
    How: Public demo or peer-reviewed blog: robot dropped into a previously unseen home, completing varied household tasks for full day with minimal human intervention
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFigure home pilot expansion announcement ("tens of units" deployed to non-employee households)
    How: Figure announces home pilot scaling to tens of units in real homes, distinct from internal employee testing
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.5%+1.2pp
Network propagation: 37.3% → 38.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z37.3%+2.4pp
Network propagation: 35.0% → 37.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z35.0%+4.5pp
Network propagation: 30.4% → 35.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z30.4%+8.8pp
Network propagation: 21.7% → 30.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z21.7%-9.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.217 w_in=0.41 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z30.9%+9.3pp
Network propagation: 21.6% → 30.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z21.6%-28.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.216 w_in=0.41 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.070
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.500+0.061
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.5000.050+0.048
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.048
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.5000.050+0.047

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.102
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.094
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.077
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.062
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.051

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (13)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Robotics 2027-12] ume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [229_026] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment countpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.699manifoldHumanoid robot walking around me within a year?14%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.662manifoldWill I make USAMO in 202737%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.659manifoldWill @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026?5%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.634polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?14%mentionspending2025-11-25
0.632manifoldWill Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?39%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.630manifoldWill I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?19%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.610manifoldIf the Googlebook is launched, will it still be available a year later?73%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.607polymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?2%mentionspending2025-11-25
0.599manifoldWill I break a bone before the end of 2027?7%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.591manifoldWill the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?38%mentionspending2026-06-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "hopefully by next year by next year we can basically really show like real general purpose inside of the robot. Maybe even as soon as this year like um I mean listen it could happen in a couple months.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "So I think we'll see like we're trying to push and continue to pull ahead but I think hopefully by next year by next year we can basically really show like real general purpose inside of the robot. Maybe even as soon as this year like um I mean listen it could happen in a couple months.",
  "conv_cues": "hopefully; I think; could happen",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "hopefully by next year (2027), maybe this year (2026)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure ships >1 humanoid per hour rate, 350+ Figure 02 units delivered (24x ramp in 4 months)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.theresarobotforthat.com/figure-now-ships-1-humanoid-per-hour/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public Figure announcement or press confirming production cadence ≥ 1 robot/hour and cumulative deliveries ≥ 350"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 02 sustained autonomous operation milestone (≥ 4-5 hr continuous neural-net runtime in unstructured tasks)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/future-of-humanoid-robots",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Demo video or technical post documenting ≥4 hr continuous autonomous operation across logistics/kitchen/manufacturing without human intervention"
    },
    
... (truncated)