Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.

Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | I'm having a huge debate right now with Milan, my 14-year-old, because he wants to drive to get away from us. And I'm like, you can't you can't get a driver's license because I've made a prediction that you will never get a driver's license.

I'm having a huge debate right now with Milan, my 14-year-old, because he wants to drive to get away from us. And I'm like, you can't you can't get a driver's license because I've made a prediction that you will never get a driver's license.

Peter's son Milan never needing license — lifetime prediction. Not testable in 5y.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I've made a prediction that you will never get a driver's license. So, you can't you can't make me wrong.",
  "to_year": 2100,
  "verbatim": "I'm having a huge debate right now with Milan, my 14-year-old, because he wants to drive to get away from us. And I'm like, you can't you can't get a driver's license because I've made a prediction that you will never get a driver's license.",
  "conv_cues": "will never; I've made a prediction",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ever (lifetime)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "230_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "229_026",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo reaches 1 million weekly paid robotaxi rides across US cities",
      "source": "https://carboncredits.com/waymo-hits-2500-robotaxi-in-u-s-the-future-of-driverless-rides/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo (Alphabet) publicly reports 1M+ paid driverless rides per week, confirmed via earnings call, press release, or major outlet coverage; baseline was 500K/week in early 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "230_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "230_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_038",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "230_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Driverless robotaxi services operating in 25+ US metro areas with sustained commercial fleets",
      "source": "https://www.humai.blog/2026-is-the-year-of-autonomous-driving-waymo-in-10-cities-tesla-expanding-where-you-can-already-get-a-robotaxi/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Aggregate
... (truncated)