Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).

Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | And so the prediction market poly market came, you know, says now what like a 7% chance of it being released in the next... It came down to 20%... And then it came all the way down to like, no, they're not going to let it out the door.

And so the prediction market poly market came, you know, says now what like a 7% chance of it being released in the next... It came down to 20%... And then it came all the way down to like, no, they're not going to let it out the door.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "7% probability",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "caveats": "Market-based probability",
  "context": "prediction market poly market came, you know, says now what like a 7% chance of it being released in the next... no, they're not going to let it out the door.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
  "verbatim": "And so the prediction market poly market came, you know, says now what like a 7% chance of it being released in the next... It came down to 20%... And then it came all the way down to like, no, they're not going to let it out the door.",
  "conv_cues": "prediction market",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term (weeks)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic confirms Mythos as government-only via Project Glasswing",
      "source": "https://cryptobriefing.com/anthropic-withholds-claude-mythos-sparking-ai-community-debate/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/anthropic-withholds-claude-mythos-sparking-ai-community-debate/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-07",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publishes confirmation that Mythos is restricted to USG/trusted partners under Project Glasswing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Polymarket Mythos release-by-June-30 odds drop below 30%",
      "notes": "HIT — Polymarket dropped to 26-28% per KuCoin/Claude Mythos Info reporting.",
      "source": "https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Polymarket 'Claude Mythos released by June 30 2026' market trades below 30% probability"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expecte
... (truncated)