GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).

GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | I hear rumors that it it could be within a day or two. I I don't know but imminent.

I hear rumors that it it could be within a day or two. I I don't know but imminent.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1-2 days",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Would you have any idea when spud is going to be released?... I hear rumors that it it could be within a day or two.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I hear rumors that it it could be within a day or two. I I don't know but imminent.",
  "conv_cues": "rumors; I don't know but imminent",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Within days of 2026-04-11",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 'Spud'",
      "notes": "HIT — exact match. 'Spud' codename confirmed in Axios/Wikipedia.",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-5/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publicly releases model branded GPT-5.5 with availability in ChatGPT/API"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Axios reports OpenAI 'Spud' codename leak ahead of release",
      "notes": "HIT — Axios confirmed 'Spud' branding. Threads/community discussion validates the codename.",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-spud-gpt-model",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-spud-gpt-model",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major tech press references 'Spud' as internal OpenAI codename for GPT-5.5"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 system card + Deployment Safety Hub published",
      "notes": "HIT — full evaluation suite published with red-team disclosure for cyber/bio capabilities.",
      "source": "https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-5-5",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publishes system card with safety/preparedness evaluation for GPT-5.5"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 Pro available in API (April 24, 2026)",
      "notes": "HIT — Pro tier API rollout 1 day after consumer release.",
      "source": "https://9to5google.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-gpt-5-5/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://9to5google.com/2026/04/23/openai-releases-gpt-5-5/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI confirms GPT-5.5 Pro tier available via API to Pro/Business/Enterprise"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-
... (truncated)