OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.
Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.
Resolution evidence
OpenAI at $852B April 2026; IPO would likely be >$1T. Tracking.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingOpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listingHow: Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC report OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, or OpenAI publicly confirms filing.Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/openai-targets-q4-2026-ipo-with-1-trillion-valuation-goal/conf 55%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-11-30pendingLast private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuationHow: Reported tender offer or secondary sale of OpenAI shares at implied valuation of $700B or higher prior to public listing; sourced via TechCrunch/Bloomberg/The Information.Source: https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/conf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-10-31pendingOpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPOHow: Press release or major financial outlet (WSJ/Bloomberg/Reuters) names the bookrunners (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan) leading the OpenAI IPO.Source: https://www.technerdo.com/blog/openai-trillion-dollar-ipo-2026conf 50%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rateHow: OpenAI or credible secondary source (The Information, Sacra, Reuters) reports OpenAI annualized revenue at or above $30B; baseline ~$25B reached February 2026.Source: https://citipen.com/openai-ipo-2026-trillion-valuation/conf 65%
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingOpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuationHow: OpenAI prices its IPO with a fully diluted post-money market capitalization of at least $1 trillion, confirmed via Form S-1/424B prospectus and major financial media.Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-openai-ipos-imminent-history-075500653.htmlconf 40%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral)How: At least two additional frontier AI labs publicly announce or file IPO/direct-listing intentions within 12 months following OpenAI's listing.Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/05/5-things-to-know-about-openai-before-its-ipo/conf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.075 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.063 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.062 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.051 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.020 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.011 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.007 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (13)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 | First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": ">$1 trillion valuation",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I I think the reported valuation of OpenAI's overall round was 730 billion pre. And and so, you know, this is not going to be a big risk. I mean, if open when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.",
"conv_cues": "likely",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "at OpenAI IPO",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "235_017",
"expected_date": "2026-06-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing",
"source": "https://www.indexbox.io/blog/openai-targets-q4-2026-ipo-with-1-trillion-valuation-goal/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2026-07-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC report OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, or OpenAI publicly confirms filing."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation",
"source": "https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2026-08-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-11-30",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Reported tender offer or secondary sale of OpenAI shares at implied valuation of $700B or higher prior to public listing; sourced via TechCrunch/Bloomberg/The Information."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO",
"source": "https://www.technerdo.com/blog/openai-trillion-dollar-ipo-2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight"
... (truncated)