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235_017predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
48.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
13 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.

Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

OpenAI at $852B April 2026; IPO would likely be >$1T. Tracking.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.633

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 48.3% → blend 48.3% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingOpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing
    How: Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC report OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, or OpenAI publicly confirms filing.
    Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/openai-targets-q4-2026-ipo-with-1-trillion-valuation-goal/conf 55%
  2. 2026-05-01 → 2026-11-30pendingLast private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation
    How: Reported tender offer or secondary sale of OpenAI shares at implied valuation of $700B or higher prior to public listing; sourced via TechCrunch/Bloomberg/The Information.
    Source: https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/conf 60%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-10-31pendingOpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO
    How: Press release or major financial outlet (WSJ/Bloomberg/Reuters) names the bookrunners (e.g., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan) leading the OpenAI IPO.
    Source: https://www.technerdo.com/blog/openai-trillion-dollar-ipo-2026conf 50%
  4. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI annualized revenue crosses $30B run-rate
    How: OpenAI or credible secondary source (The Information, Sacra, Reuters) reports OpenAI annualized revenue at or above $30B; baseline ~$25B reached February 2026.
    Source: https://citipen.com/openai-ipo-2026-trillion-valuation/conf 65%
  5. 2026-10-01 → 2027-03-31pendingOpenAI prices IPO at >=$1T fully diluted valuation
    How: OpenAI prices its IPO with a fully diluted post-money market capitalization of at least $1 trillion, confirmed via Form S-1/424B prospectus and major financial media.
    Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-openai-ipos-imminent-history-075500653.htmlconf 40%
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: OpenAI listing triggers wave of AI lab IPO filings (Anthropic, xAI, Mistral)
    How: At least two additional frontier AI labs publicly announce or file IPO/direct-listing intentions within 12 months following OpenAI's listing.
    Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/05/5-things-to-know-about-openai-before-its-ipo/conf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.3%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 49.4% → 48.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.4%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.5%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 53.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z53.0%-7.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.530 w_in=0.30 ipo_trillion_plus

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.075
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.064
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.063
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.062
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.051

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.036
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.030
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.020
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.011
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.007

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (13)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2028First $1T+ IPO in 2028ipo_trillion_plus
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.789polymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?54%mentionspending2026-05-19
0.764manifoldOpenAI closing market cap on IPO day?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.762manifoldBefore 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?24%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.690gdeltopenai revenue miss ripples p 132038121.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.670polymarketWill a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?100%mentionspending2026-04-09
0.657gdeltnasdaq composite jolted openai stumble 134226671.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.626gdeltopenais founding promise goes on trial a 31550mentionspending2026-04-30
0.626gdeltopenais founding promise goes on trial a 31550mentionspending2026-04-30
0.615manifoldWill any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?37%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.605polymarketOver $15M committed to the Printr public sale?1%mentionspending2026-04-26

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">$1 trillion valuation",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I I think the reported valuation of OpenAI's overall round was 730 billion pre. And and so, you know, this is not going to be a big risk. I mean, if open when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "when open goes public, it's likely to go public, you know, north of a trillion dollars.",
  "conv_cues": "likely",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "at OpenAI IPO",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_017",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC for IPO listing",
      "source": "https://www.indexbox.io/blog/openai-targets-q4-2026-ipo-with-1-trillion-valuation-goal/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC report OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, or OpenAI publicly confirms filing."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Last private secondary or tender at >=$700B post-money valuation",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-11-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Reported tender offer or secondary sale of OpenAI shares at implied valuation of $700B or higher prior to public listing; sourced via TechCrunch/Bloomberg/The Information."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI announces lead underwriters for IPO",
      "source": "https://www.technerdo.com/blog/openai-trillion-dollar-ipo-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight"
... (truncated)