Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Wholeheartedly believe it'll have astronomically higher value. Uh human touch, it will be so rare and so valuable, but also abundance of capital will be unbelievable. And so I expect artwork, you know, current artwork is one of the best investments you can make right now, but going forward it is a category. It will go up tremendously in value
Verbatim quote
Wholeheartedly believe it'll have astronomically higher value. Uh human touch, it will be so rare and so valuable, but also abundance of capital will be unbelievable. And so I expect artwork, you know, current artwork is one of the best investments you can make right now, but going forward it is a category. It will go up tremendously in value
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-11-30hitKlimt Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer sets Modern art world record at $236.3MHow: Sotheby's sells Gustav Klimt's Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer (1914-16) for $236.3M, establishing new world record for any work of Modern art.Source: MutualArt — 2025 Art Market Year in Reviewconf 95%Notes: HIT — top-end record-setting print supports Blundin's 'astronomically higher value' for top-tier human-made works specifically.
- 2025-12-31hitGlobal art market reaches $59.6B in 2025; auction sales +9% to $20.7BHow: Art Basel + UBS Global Art Market Report or Bank of America Spring 2026 Update document 2025 global art sales of approximately $59.6B, with public auction sales increasing 9% to $20.7B YoY.Source: Bank of America Private Bank — Art Market Update Spring 2026: Trends and Analysisconf 95%Notes: HIT — established baseline for tracking 'astronomical value increase' for human/handmade work.
- 2025-12-31 → 2027-12-31pendingAuction-house guarantee rate exceeds 50% for post-war evening salesHow: Sotheby's, Christie's, and Phillips disclose that more than 50% of post-war / contemporary evening-sale lots are guaranteed in any single auction season.Source: Bank of America — Art Market Update Spring 2026conf 65%Notes: Auction-house guarantees are how houses lock in 'certainty'. Rising rates = more capital chasing scarce human-made trophy assets.
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst public museum / mainstream art-fair restricts AI-generated art entriesHow: A major art fair (Art Basel, Frieze, FIAC) or major public museum (MoMA, Tate, Louvre) introduces formal policy distinguishing 'human-made' vs. 'AI-generated' work for collections / programming.Source: Anticipated — major art-fair admission policies, museum acquisition policiesconf 50%Notes: Direct institutional differentiation between human and AI work — required for 'human touch will be so rare' premium to be priced.
- 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingTop-50 living-artist average price exceeds $5M (from $1-2M)How: Artprice / Artnet annual reports show the top 50 living artists' average primary or secondary auction price has more than tripled vs. 2025 baseline.Source: Anticipated — Artprice Annual Report, Artnet Indicesconf 30%Notes: Cascade — specific quantitative test of 'astronomically higher value' for current artwork as investment category.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.609 | manifold | Will someone buy 1 block today on mysterybox.art? | 19% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.604 | manifold | Will I comment on this market? | 17% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.604 | manifold | Will I comment on this market? [Creator won't bet] | 35% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.596 | manifold | Will this market appear on a mug? | 26% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "astronomically higher",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Wholeheartedly believe it'll have astronomically higher value. Uh human touch, it will be so rare and so valuable... artwork... will go up tremendously in value and people will appreciate all things human, whether that's human action, human sports, human poetry, human artwork, sculpting",
"to_year": 2035,
"verbatim": "Wholeheartedly believe it'll have astronomically higher value. Uh human touch, it will be so rare and so valuable, but also abundance of capital will be unbelievable. And so I expect artwork, you know, current artwork is one of the best investments you can make right now, but going forward it is a category. It will go up tremendously in value",
"conv_cues": "wholeheartedly believe; expect",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Klimt Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer sets Modern art world record at $236.3M",
"notes": "HIT — top-end record-setting print supports Blundin's 'astronomically higher value' for top-tier human-made works specifically.",
"source": "MutualArt — 2025 Art Market Year in Review",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.mutualart.com/Article/2025-Art-Market-Year-in-Review/C8EF54FD13320C4D",
"expected_date": "2025-11-30",
"observed_date": "2025-11-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Sotheby's sells Gustav Klimt's Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer (1914-16) for $236.3M, establishing new world record for any work of Modern art."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Global art market reaches $59.6B in 2025; auction sales +9% to $20.7B",
"notes": "HIT — established baseline for tracking 'astronomical value increase' for human/handmade work.",
"source": "Bank of America Private Bank — Art Market Update Spring 2026: Trends and Analysis",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.privatebank.bankofamerica.com/articles/art-market-spring-update.html",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Art Basel + UBS Global Art Market Report or Bank of America Spring 2026 Update document 2025 global art sales of approximately $59.6B, with public auction sales increasing 9% to $20.7B YoY."
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code)
... (truncated)