The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools. | Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures
Key catalyst: Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools.
Resolution evidence
Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.19374999999999998,
"inside_posterior": 0.80625,
"validation_notes": "Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.80625,
"resolution_evidence": "Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training — Dave Blundin | 29.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.419 |
| prereq | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 202 — Dave Blundin | 29.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.419 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.110 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.093 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.136 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.131 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.122 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.101 |
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.095 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (14)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| prereq | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2031-03-31 | [Labor/Policy 2031-03] [230_014] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates [231_021] Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micr [238_064] BLS emp | pending |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026). |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools... if you're familiar with the tools, your value is just about to skyrocket.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools.",
"conv_cues": "going to go through the roof",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "230_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "232_057",
"expected_date": "2031-06-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "246_016",
"expected_date": "2034-09-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "242_023",
"expected_date": "2036-03-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "240_036",
"expected_date": "2040-07-06",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "230_020",
"expected_date": "2063-06-21",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 5,
"sub_domain": "Jobs",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 230,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.108943+00:00",
"source_refs": "Salesforce FY26 filings; ServiceNow earnings; Gartner 2026 outlook",
"target_date": "2027-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-02-13",
"key_catalyst": "Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures",
"parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2028",
"domain_bucket": "Labor",
"episode_title": "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
"flag_repeated": true,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "230, 231, 232, 246, 247",
"consensus_size": 7,
"futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (already happening)",
"is_macro_claim": true,
"macro_span_end": "2031-03",
"total_mentions": 5,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C1",
"C2",
"C3",
"C4",
"C5"
],
"report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Consulting industry going 'through the roof' as consultants leverage AI. Salesforce FY26 $41.5B repositioned around 'Agentic Enterprise'. ServiceNow 20%+ revenue growth. Consulting is accelerating, not vanishing.",
"active_end_month": "2031-03",
"macro_span_start": "2026-04",
"recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year wil
... (truncated)