← Cockpit
230_014predictionLabor/JobsAI-scaling

The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
72.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
14 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools. | Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures

Key catalyst: Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 72.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 72%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z72.3%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 73.8% → 72.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z73.8%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 76.4% → 73.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z76.4%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 80.6% → 76.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z80.6%-5.1pp
Network propagation: 85.7% → 80.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z85.7%-6.3pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 85.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+19.4pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.806
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.19374999999999998,
  "inside_posterior": 0.80625,
  "validation_notes": "Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.80625,
  "resolution_evidence": "Consulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training Dave Blundin
29.8%0.9200.050-0.419
prereq231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 202Dave Blundin
29.8%0.9200.050-0.419
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.110
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.920+0.093
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.9200.050-0.089

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.136
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050+0.131
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.122
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050+0.101
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050+0.095

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (14)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
prereq231_002Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.AI
prereq231_018Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.AI
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2031-03-31[Labor/Policy 2031-03] [230_014] BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates [231_021] Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micr [238_064] BLS emppending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importConsulting industry hiring AI native senior roles visibly (Accenture, McKinsey, BCG all announcing AI practices in 2025-2026).

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools... if you're familiar with the tools, your value is just about to skyrocket.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "the the consulting industry, you know, we were saying, Oh, consultants, you're doomed. Actually, the consulting industry is going to go through the roof. And and the reason is because the consultants are very flexible. They're already playing with the tools.",
  "conv_cues": "going to go through the roof",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "230_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_057",
      "expected_date": "2031-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_016",
      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "242_023",
      "expected_date": "2036-03-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "240_036",
      "expected_date": "2040-07-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "230_020",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 5,
  "sub_domain": "Jobs",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 230,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.108943+00:00",
  "source_refs": "Salesforce FY26 filings; ServiceNow earnings; Gartner 2026 outlook",
  "target_date": "2027-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-02-13",
  "key_catalyst": "Big 4 / consulting revenue disclosures",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2028",
  "domain_bucket": "Labor",
  "episode_title": "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": true,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "230, 231, 232, 246, 247",
  "consensus_size": 7,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (already happening)",
  "is_macro_claim": true,
  "macro_span_end": "2031-03",
  "total_mentions": 5,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4",
    "C5"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Consulting industry going 'through the roof' as consultants leverage AI. Salesforce FY26 $41.5B repositioned around 'Agentic Enterprise'. ServiceNow 20%+ revenue growth. Consulting is accelerating, not vanishing.",
  "active_end_month": "2031-03",
  "macro_span_start": "2026-04",
  "recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year wil
... (truncated)