Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | they'll they'll move to the next generation in late March of whatever whatever is winning the benchmarks on that day.
Verbatim quote
they'll they'll move to the next generation in late March of whatever whatever is winning the benchmarks on that day.
Resolution evidence
'Late March' — did not ship. Grok 5 in training, Q2 2026 more likely.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "miss",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 0,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 0,
"delta_to_outcome": -0.31014,
"inside_posterior": 0.31014,
"validation_notes": "'Late March' — did not ship. Grok 5 in training, Q2 2026 more likely.",
"validation_status": "miss",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.31014,
"resolution_evidence": "'Late March' — did not ship. Grok 5 in training, Q2 2026 more likely.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.350 | -0.053 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.350 | -0.038 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.437 |
| prereq | 230_014 The consulting industry will go through the roof as consulta — Dave Blundin | 72.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.419 |
| prereq | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial — Peter Diamandis | 71.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.410 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.367 |
| prereq | 231_050 New economy built with AI agents will work around old econom — Dave Blundin | 53.4% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.295 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 244_031 | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Energy | — |
| prereq | 243_038 | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_037 | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Labor/Jobs | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | miss | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | 'Late March' — did not ship. Grok 5 in training, Q2 2026 more likely. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.637 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.633 | manifold | Chess: Winner of GCT Super Rapid & Blitz 2026 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.631 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.623 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.622 | manifold | Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year? | 35% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.620 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.617 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.609 | polymarket | LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | 77% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
| 0.609 | polymarket | Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.596 | manifold | Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "they'll they'll move to the next generation in late March of whatever whatever is winning the benchmarks on that day. But they're not they're definitely not touching the Chinese stuff.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "they'll they'll move to the next generation in late March of whatever whatever is winning the benchmarks on that day.",
"conv_cues": "they'll",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "late March 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.",
"status": "miss",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "231_018",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "231_050",
"expected_date": "2028-06-19",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 2,
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 231,
"granularity": "MONTH_YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.163357+00:00",
"target_date": "2026-03-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-02-18",
"parse_method": "MONTH_YEAR parsed",
"domain_bucket": "AI",
"episode_title": "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
"flag_repeated": true,
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"appears_in_eps": "231, 246",
"consensus_size": 11,
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 2,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C1",
"C2",
"C3",
"C4",
"C5"
],
"active_end_month": "2026-03",
"recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year will blow away prediction - 100x by summer'. March 5 2026 Ep 235: 'Anthropic will hit $1T revenue by 2029-2030, first company in history.' Feb 13 2026 Ep 230: 'Consulting industry will go through the roof.'",
"cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
"months_from_today": -1,
"repeat_cluster_id": "C003",
"active_start_month": "2026-03",
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
"track_record_grade": "B+",
"track_record_notes": "MIT/Link Ventures investor with strong pattern recognition on AI infrastructure trends. No long public track record pre-2023; judgment best treated as high-quality operator signal, not independent forecast.",
"flag_near_term_2027": true,
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:48.821716+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"decision": "keyword_filtered",
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_id_unfiltered": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.5544
},
"validation_status_raw": "MISSED-DATE",
"composite_signal_score": 21,
"flag_priority_watchlist": false,
"flag_timeline_near_term": false,
"recalibration_candidate": {
"title": "Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.",
"reason": "Prediction is already terminal/partial but lacks structured resolution_review metadata; successor decision needs analyst evidence.",
"source": "stage_recalibration_candidates.py",
"node_id": "231_018",
"staged_at": "2026-05-02T20:45:40.932305+00:00",
"confidence": 0.45,
"conviction": 4,
"terminality": "unknown",
"outcome_class": "miss_terminality_unclear",
"schema_version": 1,
"mutation_policy": "metadata_only_no_status_or_probability_change",
"review_required": true,
"successor_policy": "do_not_create_successor_until_reviewed",
"resolution_status": "miss",
"target_window_end": "2026-03-31",
"recommended_action": "review_terminal