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247_058predictionAIAI-scaling

Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
71.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30
Edges in / out
12 / 44
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually. | Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027

Key catalyst: Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027

Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 71.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 71%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z71.4%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 72.9% → 71.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z72.9%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 75.6% → 72.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z75.6%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 79.9% → 75.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z79.9%-5.4pp
Network propagation: 85.3% → 79.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z85.3%-6.7pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 85.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+20.1pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.799
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.20096000000000003,
  "inside_posterior": 0.79904,
  "validation_notes": "Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.79904,
  "resolution_evidence": "Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 202Dave Blundin
29.8%0.9200.050-0.410
prereq231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training Dave Blundin
29.8%0.9200.050-0.410
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.119
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.920+0.102
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.920-0.098

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050+0.179
prereqSEM_036
World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by Eric Schmidt
69.7%0.7200.050-0.175
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050+0.133
prereqSEM_049
AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving Alex Wissner-Gross
55.7%0.6000.050-0.119
prereq244_013
Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRideDara Khosrowshahi
47.0%0.5500.050-0.067

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (12)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
prereq231_002Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.AI
prereq231_018Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.AI
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (44)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereqSEM_036World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).AI/Cognition
prereq231_043Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_042AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social SecurityMacro/Economy
prereq244_006Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking offAuto/Transport
prereq241_030Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automationLabor/Jobs
prereq243_038Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers)Labor/Jobs
prereq236_003Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026Labor/Jobs
prereq244_031Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger realityEnergy
prereq236_014Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quicklyLabor/Jobs
prereq236_023AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 monthsLabor/Jobs
prereqSEM_049AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement.AI/Software
prereq241_012Jobs impact from AI will occur at some pointLabor/Jobs
prereq241_028US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressedGeopolitics
prereqSEM_037For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027).Labor/Jobs
prereq241_058High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automationLabor/Jobs
prereq232_027Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_028In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong.Labor/Jobs
prereq234_034Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 yearsLabor/Jobs
prereq236_005Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 yearsLabor/Jobs
prereq236_025Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homesReal Estate
prereq238_032End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall'Labor/Jobs
prereq229_027Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.Geopolitics
prereq243_027Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026Auto/Transport
prereq243_037Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehiclesLabor/Jobs
prereq243_045Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel timeAuto/Transport
prereq244_013Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the USAuto/Transport
prereq244_028Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move inMacro/Economy
prereq237_027100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_036New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_051Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex).Markets/Stocks
prereq247_021Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomeratesLabor/Jobs
prereq240_038Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humansLabor/Jobs
prereq242_030Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobsLabor/Jobs
prereq243_028Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)Auto/Transport
prereq230_002AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_056Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going awayLabor/Jobs
prereq233_013Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand.Labor/Jobs
prereq248_018Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months.Labor/Jobs
prereq238_056Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history)Macro/Economy
prereq247_01399% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI todayLabor/Jobs

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-04-30[Capability 2026-04] [247_058] OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosuresmissed

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importMusk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.730manifoldMusk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]mentionspending2026-04-30
0.728manifoldOutcome of Musk v OpenAI?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30
0.672gdeltmusk continued his testimony from yesterday in lawsuit against openaimentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "The jury selection begins on the 27th, actually",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually.",
  "conv_cues": "begins on the 27th",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "April 27, 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "229_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "231_043",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "230_051",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "232_027",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "230_036",
      "expected_date": "2029-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "230_002",
      "expected_date": "2029-12-29",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "EXACT_DATE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.985858+00:00",
  "source_refs": "Court records; AI Futurists Report context",
  "target_date": "2026-04-27",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14",
  "key_catalyst": "Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027",
  "parse_method": "EXACT_DATE parsed",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "247",
  "consensus_size": 11,
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (Apr-Jun 2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4",
    "C5"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial per court records. Trial outcome will set precedent on OpenAI's for-profit conversion and governance of frontier labs.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-04",
  "watch_events_raw": "OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
  "months_from_today": 0,
  "
... (truncated)