Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source
Prediction text
Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually. | Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027
Key catalyst: Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027
Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually.
Resolution evidence
Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.20096000000000003,
"inside_posterior": 0.79904,
"validation_notes": "Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.79904,
"resolution_evidence": "Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 202 — Dave Blundin | 29.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.410 |
| prereq | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training — Dave Blundin | 29.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.410 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.119 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.102 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.098 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.179 |
| prereq | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by — Eric Schmidt | 69.7% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.175 |
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.133 |
| prereq | SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving — Alex Wissner-Gross | 55.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.119 |
| prereq | 244_013 Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide — Dara Khosrowshahi | 47.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (12)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| prereq | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (44)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 231_043 | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_042 | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 244_006 | Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_030 | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_038 | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_003 | Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_031 | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Energy | — |
| prereq | 236_014 | Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_023 | AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | SEM_049 | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. | AI/Software | — |
| prereq | 241_012 | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_028 | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | SEM_037 | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_058 | High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_027 | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_028 | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_034 | Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_005 | Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_025 | Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 238_032 | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_027 | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 243_027 | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_037 | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_045 | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_013 | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_028 | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_027 | 100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_036 | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_051 | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_021 | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_038 | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_030 | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_028 | Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_002 | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_056 | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_013 | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_018 | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_056 | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_013 | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Labor/Jobs | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | [Capability 2026-04] [247_058] OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures | missed |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Musk v OpenAI jury selection April 27 2026 — public docket. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "The jury selection begins on the 27th, actually",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "The jury selection begins the jury selection begins on the 27th, actually.",
"conv_cues": "begins on the 27th",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
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"timeframe": "April 27, 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
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"expected_date": "2029-06-19",
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},
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"affiliation": "Moonshots",
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"episode_num": 247,
"granularity": "EXACT_DATE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.985858+00:00",
"source_refs": "Court records; AI Futurists Report context",
"target_date": "2026-04-27",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-14",
"key_catalyst": "Verdict 2026; appellate process 2027",
"parse_method": "EXACT_DATE parsed",
"domain_bucket": "AI",
"episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
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"consensus_size": 11,
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"report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial per court records. Trial outcome will set precedent on OpenAI's for-profit conversion and governance of frontier labs.",
"active_end_month": "2026-04",
"watch_events_raw": "OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures",
"cluster_avg_grade": 4.75,
"months_from_today": 0,
"
... (truncated)