Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-09-30pendingComputershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%How: Computershare annual issuer survey reports >=90% expecting higher equity-plan participation (vs 82% in 2026)Source: Menke / Computershare 2026 issuer survey: 82% baselineconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFederal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share programHow: Bill text introduced in US Congress or major state legislature explicitly proposing labor stake in AI-productivity gains, capital-share dividend, or sovereign wealth fund tied to automationSource: Tax Project Universal High Income concept; First Movers post-AGI UBIconf 45%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBAHow: Top-tier union ratifies new collective bargaining agreement containing equity stake or AI-productivity dividend mechanismSource: SAG-AFTRA 2023 AI clauses precedent + UAW post-strike frameworkconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-09-30pendingEmployee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passesHow: S.1727 or its 2027 reintroduction passes Senate and House; tracked via Congress.govSource: S.1727 119th Congress Employee Ownership Fairness Act 2025conf 45%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1MHow: ESOP.org or DOL EBSA annual report shows participant count >=16.6M (10% above 15.1M)Source: ESOP.org 2026: 6,609 plans / 15.1M participants / $2.1T assetsconf 55%
- 2027-12-31pendingIf no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakensHow: Zero federal labor-equity bills passed and ESOP participant count flat at <=15.5M at end-2027 implies the predicted directional shift is not materializingSource: Logical evaluation against ESOP.org 2026 baseline dataconf 55%
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_RECESSION_2028 NBER recession declared 2028 | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.197 |
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.063 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.039 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.028 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | S_RECESSION_2028 | NBER recession declared 2028 | macro_recession | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Framed as hope / push",
"context": "Peter's push on kind of labor, you know, being able to own assets, etc. is another great push as well... to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in and hopefully that's something else that we can",
"verbatim": "in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in",
"conv_cues": "hopefully",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "247_058",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%",
"source": "Menke / Computershare 2026 issuer survey: 82% baseline",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.menke.com/esop-archives/esop-archives/",
"expected_date": "2027-05-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-09-30",
"from": "2026-12-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Computershare annual issuer survey reports >=90% expecting higher equity-plan participation (vs 82% in 2026)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share program",
"source": "Tax Project Universal High Income concept; First Movers post-AGI UBI",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://taxproject.org/universal-high-income/",
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-03-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Bill text introduced in US Congress or major state legislature explicitly proposing labor stake in AI-productivity gains, capital-share dividend, or sovereign wealth fund tied to automation"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Major union (UAW, SAG
... (truncated)