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244_028predictionMacro/Economyjobs

Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
39.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
8 / 0
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)"
in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-12-01 → 2027-09-30pendingComputershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%
    How: Computershare annual issuer survey reports >=90% expecting higher equity-plan participation (vs 82% in 2026)
    Source: Menke / Computershare 2026 issuer survey: 82% baselineconf 55%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2028-03-31pendingFederal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share program
    How: Bill text introduced in US Congress or major state legislature explicitly proposing labor stake in AI-productivity gains, capital-share dividend, or sovereign wealth fund tied to automation
    Source: Tax Project Universal High Income concept; First Movers post-AGI UBIconf 45%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingMajor union (UAW, SAG-AFTRA, Teamsters) negotiates AI-equity clause in CBA
    How: Top-tier union ratifies new collective bargaining agreement containing equity stake or AI-productivity dividend mechanism
    Source: SAG-AFTRA 2023 AI clauses precedent + UAW post-strike frameworkconf 50%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2028-09-30pendingEmployee Ownership Fairness Act or successor legislation passes
    How: S.1727 or its 2027 reintroduction passes Senate and House; tracked via Congress.gov
    Source: S.1727 119th Congress Employee Ownership Fairness Act 2025conf 45%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingESOP participant count grows >10% above 2026 baseline of 15.1M
    How: ESOP.org or DOL EBSA annual report shows participant count >=16.6M (10% above 15.1M)
    Source: ESOP.org 2026: 6,609 plans / 15.1M participants / $2.1T assetsconf 55%
  6. 2027-12-31pendingIf no federal legislation moves and ESOP growth flatlines through 2027, claim direction weakens
    How: Zero federal labor-equity bills passed and ESOP participant count flat at <=15.5M at end-2027 implies the predicted directional shift is not materializing
    Source: Logical evaluation against ESOP.org 2026 baseline dataconf 55%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z39.7%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 41.1% → 39.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.1%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 43.7% → 41.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.7%-4.6pp
Network propagation: 48.2% → 43.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.2%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.1% → 48.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.1%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_RECESSION_2028
NBER recession declared 2028
30.0%0.5500.050-0.197
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.550+0.063
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.039
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050+0.033
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.550+0.028

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

ADUSCOURDOCNFROGGTLBINODPLROLSPIRSRFMUDMYTEAMNFLXPLTRRDDTUBERAMZNBABASPOTGDDYGOOGLMETAMSFT

Adverse (6)

RHIBXPSLGMANKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqS_RECESSION_2028NBER recession declared 2028macro_recession
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Framed as hope / push",
  "context": "Peter's push on kind of labor, you know, being able to own assets, etc. is another great push as well... to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in and hopefully that's something else that we can",
  "verbatim": "in our capitalist society, capital is the thing that's being optimized sometimes at the expense of labor and to kind of bring labor along so that they can be owners, um that is a very, very positive direction that we go in",
  "conv_cues": "hopefully",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "247_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Computershare 2027 survey: equity-plan participation among employers exceeds 90%",
      "source": "Menke / Computershare 2026 issuer survey: 82% baseline",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.menke.com/esop-archives/esop-archives/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Computershare annual issuer survey reports >=90% expecting higher equity-plan participation (vs 82% in 2026)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Federal or state legislation introduced for AI-dividend or worker-equity-share program",
      "source": "Tax Project Universal High Income concept; First Movers post-AGI UBI",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://taxproject.org/universal-high-income/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-03-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bill text introduced in US Congress or major state legislature explicitly proposing labor stake in AI-productivity gains, capital-share dividend, or sovereign wealth fund tied to automation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major union (UAW, SAG
... (truncated)