S_RECESSION_2028scenariomacro_recession
NBER recession declared 2028
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 13
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
US recession 2028 — typical cycle length from current expansion.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: recession_probability_2yr
Linked
NBER-defined recession beginning within 2 years of given prediction
Base rate
26.7%
8/30 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_028 Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society wi — Dara Khosrowshahi | 39.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.197 |
| prereq | 240_040 Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire — Elon Musk | 37.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.194 |
| prereq | 247_017 Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism wi — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.184 |
| prereq | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI eco — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.166 |
| prereq | 238_056 Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose figh — Alex Wissner-Gross | 30.1% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.146 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (13)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_028 | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_040 | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_036 | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_056 | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | FUT_022 | Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | ROB_015 | The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Industrial Revolution economic upheaval compressed into 3 traumatic years — followed by the dawn of the 'Agentic Era' in 2027 where autonomous AI agents pa... | Labor/Jobs | — |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "recession",
"dimension": "macro_recession",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "Recession",
"family_order": 3,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}