Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)

Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | 10x uh economic growth in Elon's number 10x in 10 years.

10x uh economic growth in Elon's number 10x in 10 years.

Same cluster. Absent AGI-driven productivity explosion, 10x GDP in 10y is ~5x historical max post-war growth rates. Base rate: <5% likelihood by conventional econ; higher if ASI arrives.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "10x uh economic growth in Elon's number 10x in 10 years. Where's it all going to go?",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
  "verbatim": "10x uh economic growth in Elon's number 10x in 10 years.",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "10 years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global AI capex exceeds $1 trillion annual",
      "source": "Hyperscaler capex run-rate (~$400B in 2025)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Combined Big Tech (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Tesla, plus Chinese hyperscalers) annual AI infrastructure capex exceeds $1T; tracked via earnings reports and JPM/MS sector reports"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-driven productivity boost shows up in cross-country TFP statistics",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs: 'AI may start to boost US GDP in 2027'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-may-start-to-boost-us-gdp-in-2027",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-29",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BEA, OECD, or Conference Board reports total factor productivity (TFP) growth exceeding 2% annualized in advanced economies, sustained for >=4 quarters, attributed primarily to AI by economic studies"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: NBER recession declared 2028",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "S_RECESSION_2028",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2029-10-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "World GDP growth rate sustains >=4% annualized for 3+ consecutive years",
      "source": "IMF WEO baselines",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IMF World Economic Outlook prints global GDP growth above 4% for 3+ consecutive years (vs. ~3% baseline), explicitly citing AI/automation contribution"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2031-09-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Per-capita global GDP doubles relative to 2025 baseline",
      "source": "World Bank historical PCGDP",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.1,
      "expected_date": "2032-03-3
... (truncated)