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239_027predictionMacro/Economyeconomy

Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
34.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2031-01-01 – 2031-12-31
Edges in / out
21 / 0
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | you had said uh tripledigit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239"
you had said uh tripledigit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

See 230_009.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-01-15hitGoldman Sachs raises 2026 global GDP forecast to 2.8% (above consensus 2.5%) citing AI capex tailwinds
    How: Goldman Sachs 2026 outlook publishes 2.8% forecast specifically attributing upside to AI/data-center investment
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  2. 2026-04-15hitIMF projects 0.3pp upside to 2026 global GDP from AI investment surge
    How: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 published baseline 3.3% with AI upside scenario explicitly cited
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
  3. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAnnual US real GDP growth crosses 5% (first sustained quarterly print) attributed to AI productivity
    How: BEA reports 5%+ annualized US real GDP growth in 2+ consecutive quarters, with productivity decomposition citing AI
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingAnnual global real GDP growth crosses 6% — first time since 1973
    How: World Bank Global Economic Prospects shows 6%+ annualized real growth as primary forecast
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 20%
  5. 2031-07-08pendingTriple-digit (100%+) US GDP growth realized within 5 years of original Musk claim (full path-dependence event)
    How: BEA publishes full-year US GDP growth at 100%+, or revised cumulative-5y growth meets the literal Musk claim
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 5%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 34%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z34.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 35.3% → 34.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z35.3%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 37.8% → 35.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z37.8%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 41.7% → 37.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.7%-8.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 41.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq236_045
Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible ouAndrew Yang
40.6%0.5000.050-0.111
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.500+0.106
prereq232_022
Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due Ben Horowitz
41.8%0.5000.050-0.105
prereqSEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivityMike Wilson
42.8%0.5000.050-0.094
prereq238_068
Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually tMark Pack Donovan
42.9%0.5000.050-0.093

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

UDMYBBAISRFMSOUNNVDACOURCRCLDOCNAIADUSGTLBZMAMZNGDDYGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTNFLXORCLRDDTSPOTUBER

Adverse (7)

KKRJNKAPOHYGKREXLYXHB

Prerequisites (21)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_039Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory.Semis/ASICs
prereqSEM_048OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition).AI/Corporate
prereqSEM_046AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero.AI/Startups
prereqSEM_006OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction.AI/Finance
prereqSEM_045Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations.Economy/Org
prereq247_015Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulenceMacro/Economy
prereq236_018UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearsMacro/Economy
prereq241_022Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growthMacro/Economy
prereq240_042Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)Macro/Economy
prereq230_009US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.Macro/Economy
prereq238_068Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)Macro/Economy
prereq247_036Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029AI
prereqSEM_030S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).Capital Markets
prereqSEM_040Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance.Finance/Crypto
prereq236_045Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028Geopolitics
prereq232_022Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.Macro/Economy
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "triple-digit growth (>=100%)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "you had said uh tripledigit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "you had said uh tripledigit growth in in five plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2031,
  "timeframe": "5+ years from 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs raises 2026 global GDP forecast to 2.8% (above consensus 2.5%) citing AI capex tailwinds",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-economy-forecast-to-post-sturdy-growth-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs 2026 outlook publishes 2.8% forecast specifically attributing upside to AI/data-center investment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IMF projects 0.3pp upside to 2026 global GDP from AI investment surge",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/imf-sees-steady-global-growth-in-2026-as-ai-boom-offsets-trade-headwinds-4453544",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 published baseline 3.3% with AI upside scenario explicitly cited"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_048",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_068",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "236_045",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Annual US real GDP growth crosses 5% (first sustained quarterly print) attributed to AI productivity",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/global-economic-outlook-2026",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BEA reports 5%+ annualized US real GDP growth in 2+ consecutive quarters, with productivity decomposition citing AI"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Annual global real GDP growth crosses 6% — first time since 1973",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.2,
      "source_url": 
... (truncated)