SEM_030predictionCapital Marketseconomy

S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).

Predictor: Mike Wilson

Prior probability

55.0%

Current probability

42.8%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

8 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | S&P 500 Q2-Q4 2026 earnings + productivity disclosures

Key catalyst: S&P 500 Q2-Q4 2026 earnings + productivity disclosures

Watch events: S&P 500 year-end level; operating margin expansion vs consensus; productivity data

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Wilson's Jan-2026 outlook reaffirmed 2026 targets. MS US equity team has AI-productivity thesis as core 2026 differentiator vs consensus.

Predictor: Mike Wilson

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.500

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Mike Wilson is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending

2025-11-19hitMorgan Stanley issues 7,800 S&P 500 2026 target with 17% EPS growth thesis
How: Mike Wilson publicly publishes 12-month S&P 500 target of 7,800 backed by ~17% earnings growth assumption
Source: CNBC: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson — 7,800 S&P 500 target for 2026conf 99%
2026-01-15hitWilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcast
How: Morgan Stanley Thoughts on the Market podcast features Mike Wilson articulating AI productivity expansion beyond megacap tech
Source: Morgan Stanley: 2026 U.S. Outlook — The Bull Market's Underappreciated Narrativeconf 95%
2026-03-02overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-04-03hitS&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensus
How: Bloomberg/FactSet bottom-up consensus for 2026 S&P 500 EPS growth reaches >=15% (mid-teens consistent with Wilson's view)
Source: FinancialContent: Earnings Revision Momentum — Analysts Upgraded S&P 500 Growth to 17%conf 85%
2026-05-02overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingOperating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectors
How: Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) operating margin in Q1-Q2 2026 reports rises >=50bps YoY, with management commentary citing AI productivity
Source: Morgan Stanley Wilson Thoughts on the Market 2026 outlookconf 65%
2026-07-02pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-09-01pendingS&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMultiple-expansion surprise materializes in 2026 H2
How: S&P 500 forward P/E expands >=1 turn from year-start level, against Wilson's 'modest contraction' base case
Source: Seeking Alpha: Wilson — Multiple expansion could be 2026's big surpriseconf 45%
2026-12-31pendingS&P 500 closes 2026 within 5% of 7,800 target (i.e., 7,400-8,200 range)
How: S&P 500 year-end 2026 close between 7,400 and 8,200 (consistent with ~10% 2026 upside from ~7,000 base)
Source: Wilson 7,800 target; BurningTheta consensus range 7,500-8,100conf 50%
2031-07-08pendingDiamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years
2032-07-07pendingGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.
2036-09-04pendingGlobal economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).
2036-09-24pendingElon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.
2036-10-04pendingGlobal economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z42.8%+1.5pp

Network propagation: 41.3% → 42.8%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.3%+2.9pp

Network propagation: 38.5% → 41.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-10T22:10:52Z38.5%-4.9pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.385 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6430653381014068,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Mike Wilson",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.26767857774698267,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4334770893344535,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-02",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5498542633290152,
  "outside_weight": 0.4501457366709848,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3845189388426001,
  "posterior_logit": -0.47041113180106486,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3845189388426001,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3845189388426001,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.3%+1.1pp

Network propagation: 42.3% → 43.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z42.3%-5.0pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Mike Wilson",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.10945345411862868,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4726639216745648,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-02",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4225812489467771,
  "posterior_logit": -0.31218600817271086,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4225812489467771,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4225812489467771,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.3%-2.6pp

Network propagation: 49.9% → 47.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.9%-5.1pp

Network propagation: 55.0% → 49.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	12.0%	0.050	0.550	+0.062
killer	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	18.0%	0.050	0.550	+0.032
killer	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	30.0%	0.050	0.550	-0.028
killer	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	20.0%	0.050	0.550	+0.022
killer	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	25.0%	0.050	0.550	-0.003

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Mu — Elon Musk	37.3%	0.550	0.050	-0.105
prereq	248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. — Elon Musk	37.3%	0.550	0.050	-0.105
prereq	230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythin — Alex Wissner-Gross	32.0%	0.450	0.050	-0.096
prereq	239_027 Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years — Elon Musk	34.0%	0.500	0.050	-0.094
prereq	239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk	37.7%	0.600	0.050	-0.087

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

UDMY BBAI SRFM SOUN NVDA COUR CRCL DOCN AI ADUS GTLB ZM AMZN GDDY GOOGL IBM META MSFT NFLX ORCL RDDT SPOT UBER

Adverse (7)

KKR JNK APO HYG KRE XLY XHB

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_RECESSION_2027	NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	—
correlate	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026	First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	—
correlate	S_RECESSION_2026	NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK04	Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK07	Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	—
killer	TK10	$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	239_001	Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	246_003	Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	248_009	Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	239_027	Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	230_035	GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.	Macro/Economy	—

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2027-03-31	[Capital Markets 2027-03] 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) [SEM_030] S&P 500 year-end level; operating margin expansion vs consensus; productivity data [230_034] Abundance will be achieved by 2035.	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.739	manifold	S&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?	57%	mentions	pending	2026-05-27
0.730	manifold	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-29
0.724	manifold	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.717	manifold	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of June 2026?	53%	mentions	pending	2026-05-30
0.714	manifold	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?	39%	mentions	pending	2026-05-01
0.714	manifold	Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026?	35%	mentions	pending	2026-06-05
0.710	manifold	Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?	89%	mentions	pending	2026-04-24
0.710	manifold	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?	47%	mentions	pending	2026-05-01
0.703	manifold	What close prices will the S&P500 hit in June 2026?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-05
0.700	manifold	Will the s&p500 close at 7,000.00 or less before 2028?	57%	mentions	pending	2026-06-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "~10% SPX upside",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "Wilson's out-of-consensus 2026 view: AI productivity diffusion expands beyond megacap tech, supports 10% S&P upside via operating-margin expansion.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "maintains out-of-consensus view",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Morgan Stanley issues 7,800 S&P 500 2026 target with 17% EPS growth thesis",
      "source": "CNBC: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson — 7,800 S&P 500 target for 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/11/19/morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-shares-7800-sp-500-target-for-2026.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-19",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-19",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Mike Wilson publicly publishes 12-month S&P 500 target of 7,800 backed by ~17% earnings growth assumption"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wilson confirms AI productivity diffusion thesis in 2026 US Outlook podcast",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley: 2026 U.S. Outlook — The Bull Market's Underappreciated Narrative",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/us-equity-market-outlook-2026-mike-wilson",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley Thoughts on the Market podcast features Mike Wilson articulating AI productivity expansion beyond megacap tech"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-02",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "S&P 500 EPS revisions trend upward to ~17% growth consensus",
      "source": "FinancialContent: Earnings Revision Momentum — Analysts Upgraded S&P 500 Growth to 17%",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-4-3-earnings-revision-momentum-why-analysts-upgraded-s-and-p-500-growth-to-17",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-03",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Bloomberg/FactSet bottom-up consensus for 2026 S&P 500 EPS growth reaches >=15% (mid-teens consistent with Wilson's view)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-02",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-10T22:10:52.342846+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Operating margin expansion observed in non-megacap S&P sectors",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley Wilson Thoughts on the Market 2026 outlook",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/us-equity-market-outlook-2026-mike-wilson",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_
... (truncated)