S_RECESSION_2026scenariomacro_recession
NBER recession declared 2026
Prior probability
20.0%
Current probability
20.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 16
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
US recession beginning 2026. Yield curve, soft labor data, weakening consumer.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: recession_probability_2yr
Linked
NBER-defined recession beginning within 2 years of given prediction
Base rate
26.7%
8/30 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 20%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_054 Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will — Peter Diamandis | 45.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.293 |
| prereq | 246_045 Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. — Peter Diamandis | 44.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.286 |
| prereq | 239_030 1000x current economy would saturate human desires — Elon Musk | 36.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.229 |
| prereq | 236_001 Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen sim — Elon Musk | 35.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.211 |
| prereq | 239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point — Elon Musk | 35.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.211 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (16)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_001 | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_021 | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_030 | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AI_013 | 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | FUT_022 | Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AI_021 | The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | CYB_028 | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | INF_047 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AI_026 | AI is executing a catastrophic repricing of legacy software stocks and a total 'demonetization of human capital' — the resultant deflationary shock will force global central banks into the most aggressive monetary easing and fiat currency printing in h... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AUT_007 | 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (8)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "recession",
"dimension": "macro_recession",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "Recession",
"family_order": 1,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}