S_RECESSION_2027scenariomacro_recession
NBER recession declared 2027
Prior probability
30.0%
Current probability
30.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 14
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
US recession beginning 2027. Most likely year per yield-curve models that priced 2024 recession that didn't happen.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: recession_probability_2yr
Linked
NBER-defined recession beginning within 2 years of given prediction
Base rate
26.7%
8/30 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 30%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_055 Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most good — Peter Diamandis | 49.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.267 |
| prereq | 238_053 Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless — Salim Ismail | 42.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.220 |
| prereq | 239_023 AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit — Elon Musk | 40.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.209 |
| prereq | 239_019 Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money — Elon Musk | 40.2% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.202 |
| prereq | 240_059 AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electric — Salim Ismail | 38.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.197 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (14)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_019 | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_023 | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 234_014 | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 235_003 | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | INF_047 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.637 | polymarket | Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-29 |
| 0.629 | polymarket | Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-29 |
| 0.626 | polymarket | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-29 |
| 0.625 | polymarket | Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-29 |
| 0.624 | polymarket | Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-29 |
| 0.611 | manifold | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027? | 58% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-06 |
| 0.607 | polymarket | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2025-07-08 |
| 0.599 | polymarket | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2025-07-08 |
| 0.597 | manifold | Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030? | 4% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.584 | manifold | Will Bricks and Minifigs corporate declare bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2029? | 45% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "recession",
"dimension": "macro_recession",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "Recession",
"family_order": 2,
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}