241_022predictionMacro/Economyeconomy

Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

45.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

5 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | the data center build out is 1% of the GDP of America growth

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"

the data center build out is 1% of the GDP of America growth

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0064

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending

2026-01-15hitAI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baseline
How: St. Louis Fed / BEA data confirm AI-related capital expenditures contributed >=1.0% to GDP growth in 1H 2025, establishing baseline
Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth — St. Louis Fedconf 95%
2026-02-15hitData center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)
How: Census Bureau monthly construction spending data shows data center construction at >=$40B annual rate, +30% YoY
Source: https://paulkedrosky.com/honey-ai-capex-ate-the-economy/ — $40B construction rateconf 92%
2026-02-23overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-04-17overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-04-30hitQ1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increase
How: BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate decomposition shows AI investments contributed >=70% of the 2.0% Q1 GDP growth
Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/us-gdp-grows-20-in-q1-2026-ai-investments-drive-75-of-increase/ — Q1 2026 GDPconf 90%
2026-06-09pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-08-02pendingData center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth
2026-08-31pending2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)
How: Combined Magnificent-7 reported H1 2026 AI capex >=$340B, on track for $700B full-year (vs $365B in 2025)
Source: https://www.abhs.in/blog/microsoft-meta-google-amazon-q1-2026-earnings-ai-capex-630-billion-preview — Q1 2026 earningsconf 80%
2026-12-31pendingGlobal data center capex CAGR confirms 21% trajectory toward $1.2T by 2029
How: DCD or equivalent industry tracker confirms 2026 global data center capex on >=20% CAGR toward $1.2T by 2029
Source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/as-ai-capex-leads-us-economy-global-data-center-capex-projected-to-grow-at-21-percent-cagr-to-12tn-by-2029/ — DCD 21% CAGRconf 75%
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: Construction subsegment 'data center' formally separated from 'office' in BEA data
How: BEA or Census Bureau publishes data center as a standalone construction category, recognizing macro relevance
Source: Pattern extrapolation from BEA office-bundled disclosureconf 40%
2031-07-08pendingDiamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years
2032-07-07pendingGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.
2036-09-04pendingGlobal economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).
2036-09-24pendingElon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.
2036-10-04pendingGlobal economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.4%+1.3pp

Network propagation: 44.1% → 45.4%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z44.1%+2.5pp

Network propagation: 41.6% → 44.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.6%+4.9pp

Network propagation: 36.7% → 41.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z36.7%-13.6pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.367 blend=0.367 LLR=-0.558 κ=0.69 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Eric Schmidt",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.012971972169434767,
  "bayes_factor": "1.7:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5032429475676967,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-23",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.36713150317480536,
  "posterior_logit": -0.5445425514792912,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0064,
  "inside_posterior": 0.36713150317480536,
  "blended_posterior": 0.36713150317480536,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.557514523648726,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z50.3%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 53.7% → 50.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.7%-6.3pp

Network propagation: 60.0% → 53.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	12.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.080
killer	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	18.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.047
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.047
killer	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	30.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.019
killer	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	25.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.008

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Mu — Elon Musk	37.3%	0.550	0.050	-0.093
prereq	248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. — Elon Musk	37.3%	0.550	0.050	-0.093
prereq	230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythin — Alex Wissner-Gross	32.0%	0.450	0.050	-0.086
prereq	239_027 Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years — Elon Musk	34.0%	0.500	0.050	-0.083
prereq	239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk	37.7%	0.600	0.050	-0.074

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

AI NVDA ADUS GTLB BBAI UDMY COUR CRCL SRFM SOUN DOCN ZM AMZN GDDY GOOGL IBM META MSFT NFLX ORCL RDDT SPOT UBER

Adverse (7)

XHB JNK KKR KRE APO XLY HYG

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK04	Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	—
killer	TK07	Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	—
killer	TK10	$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	239_001	Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	246_003	Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	248_009	Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	239_027	Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years	Macro/Economy	—
prereq	230_035	GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.	Macro/Economy	—

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1% of GDP growth",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the data center build out is 1% of the GDP of America growth",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the data center build out is 1% of the GDP of America growth",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "present",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI capex contributes 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025 baseline",
      "source": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth — St. Louis Fed",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "St. Louis Fed / BEA data confirm AI-related capital expenditures contributed >=1.0% to GDP growth in 1H 2025, establishing baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Data center construction hits $40B annual rate (June 2025 baseline)",
      "source": "https://paulkedrosky.com/honey-ai-capex-ate-the-economy/ — $40B construction rate",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://paulkedrosky.com/honey-ai-capex-ate-the-economy/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Census Bureau monthly construction spending data shows data center construction at >=$40B annual rate, +30% YoY"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-23",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-17",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Q1 2026 AI investments drive 75% of GDP increase",
      "source": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-gdp-grows-20-in-q1-2026-ai-investments-drive-75-of-increase/ — Q1 2026 GDP",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-gdp-grows-20-in-q1-2026-ai-investments-drive-75-of-increase/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BEA Q1 2026 advance estimate decomposition shows AI investments contributed >=70% of the 2.0% Q1 GDP growth"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_022",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "2026 hyperscaler AI capex reaches $700B (~doubles 2025)",
      "source": "https://www.abhs.in/b
... (truncated)