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238_068predictionMacro/Economyeconomy

Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)

Predictor: Mark Pack Donovan · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
42.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
5 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.

Predictor: Mark Pack Donovan

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Mark Pack Donovan is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-03-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-04-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-01 → 2026-09-30pendingPincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structure
    How: Mark Pincus (or Mark Donovan, depending on transcription) publicly confirms 1% annual contribution + 5% distribution model for 44-person pod (38 needs-based + 7-8 contributors)
    Source: Abundance Summit 2026 transcripts; founder X/blogconf 60%
    Notes: Source attribution unclear from transcript ('Mark Pack Donovan' likely transcription of 'Mark Pincus' or 'Pat Donovan'). Verify identity before tracking.
  4. 2026-06-29pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)
    How: Pod operator confirms first cycle of ~$X cash distributions to 38 needs-based + 7-8 contributor recipients per stated formula
    Source: Public disclosures; nonprofit filingsconf 45%
  6. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipients
    How: Wealth pod publishes baseline measurement of recipients' income, savings, and wellbeing prior to disbursement (UBI study analog)
    Source: Diamandis blog; pod operatorconf 35%
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst-year recipient outcomes publicly reported
    How: Pod publishes 12-month outcome data: change in recipient income, savings, employment, mental health vs baseline
    Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/why-ubi-worksconf 35%
  8. 2027-12-01 → 2029-06-30pendingExpansion pool funds second pod
    How: 1% expansion pool deploys capital to launch second small-scale UBI-style pod (multiplier signal)
    Source: Pod operator; foundation announcementsconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z42.9%+1.5pp
Network propagation: 41.4% → 42.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.4%+2.9pp
Network propagation: 38.5% → 41.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z38.5%-4.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.385 blend=0.385 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6485508726164085,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Mark Pack Donovan",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.26767857774698267,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4334770893344535,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.546014389168514,
  "outside_weight": 0.45398561083148603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3845189388426001,
  "posterior_logit": -0.47041113180106486,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3845189388426001,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3845189388426001,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.3%+1.1pp
Network propagation: 42.3% → 43.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z42.3%-5.0pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.423 blend=0.423 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Mark Pack Donovan",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.10945345411862868,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4726639216745648,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4225812489467771,
  "posterior_logit": -0.31218600817271086,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4225812489467771,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4225812489467771,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.3%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 49.9% → 47.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.9%-5.1pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 49.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.550+0.061
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.550+0.031
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.550-0.029
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.550+0.021
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.550-0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_003
Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon MuElon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050-0.105
prereq248_009
Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk
37.3%0.5500.050-0.105
prereq230_035
GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythinAlex Wissner-Gross
32.0%0.4500.050-0.096
prereq239_027
Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk
34.0%0.5000.050-0.093
prereq239_001
Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk
37.7%0.6000.050-0.087

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

UDMYBBAISRFMSOUNNVDACOURCRCLDOCNAIADUSGTLBZMAMZNGDDYGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTNFLXORCLRDDTSPOTUBER

Adverse (7)

KKRJNKAPOHYGKREXLYXHB

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereq246_003Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Macro/Economy
prereq248_009Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Macro/Economy
prereq239_027Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsMacro/Economy
prereq230_035GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Macro/Economy

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.635polymarketBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?37%mentionspending2025-10-24
0.590gdeltmentionspending2026-04-30
0.578polymarketWill Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?0%mentionspending2026-02-20

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1% wealth/yr, 5% distribution",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-Other",
  "context": "I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.",
  "conv_cues": "I'm going to commit",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Ongoing annually",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structure",
      "notes": "Source attribution unclear from transcript ('Mark Pack Donovan' likely transcription of 'Mark Pincus' or 'Pat Donovan'). Verify identity before tracking.",
      "source": "Abundance Summit 2026 transcripts; founder X/blog",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-03-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Mark Pincus (or Mark Donovan, depending on transcription) publicly confirms 1% annual contribution + 5% distribution model for 44-person pod (38 needs-based + 7-8 contributors)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_068",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)",
      "source": "Public disclosures; nonprofit filings",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Pod operator confirms first cycle of ~$X cash distributions to 38 needs-based + 7-8 contributor recipients per stated formula"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipients",
      "source": "Diamandis blog; pod operator",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "resea
... (truncated)