Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)
Predictor: Mark Pack Donovan · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.
Verbatim quote
I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.
Predictor: Mark Pack Donovan
Evidence about this node from Mark Pack Donovan is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-04-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-01 → 2026-09-30pendingPincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structureHow: Mark Pincus (or Mark Donovan, depending on transcription) publicly confirms 1% annual contribution + 5% distribution model for 44-person pod (38 needs-based + 7-8 contributors)Source: Abundance Summit 2026 transcripts; founder X/blogconf 60%Notes: Source attribution unclear from transcript ('Mark Pack Donovan' likely transcription of 'Mark Pincus' or 'Pat Donovan'). Verify identity before tracking.
- 2026-06-29pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)How: Pod operator confirms first cycle of ~$X cash distributions to 38 needs-based + 7-8 contributor recipients per stated formulaSource: Public disclosures; nonprofit filingsconf 45%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipientsHow: Wealth pod publishes baseline measurement of recipients' income, savings, and wellbeing prior to disbursement (UBI study analog)Source: Diamandis blog; pod operatorconf 35%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst-year recipient outcomes publicly reportedHow: Pod publishes 12-month outcome data: change in recipient income, savings, employment, mental health vs baselineSource: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/why-ubi-worksconf 35%
- 2027-12-01 → 2029-06-30pendingExpansion pool funds second podHow: 1% expansion pool deploys capital to launch second small-scale UBI-style pod (multiplier signal)Source: Pod operator; foundation announcementsconf 25%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.6485508726164085,
"kappa": 0.5,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Mark Pack Donovan",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.26767857774698267,
"bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.4334770893344535,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
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"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.5,
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.546014389168514,
"outside_weight": 0.45398561083148603,
"posterior_prob": 0.3845189388426001,
"posterior_logit": -0.47041113180106486,
"predictor_brier": null,
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"blended_posterior": 0.3845189388426001,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
"predictor_n_resolved": 0
}Raw metadata
{
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"kappa": 0.5,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Mark Pack Donovan",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
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"bayesian_v2": true,
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"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.4726639216745648,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
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"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"weight": 0.05,
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"source_url": null,
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}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
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"posterior_prob": 0.4225812489467771,
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"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
"predictor_n_resolved": 0
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.061 |
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.031 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.029 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.021 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.004 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_003 Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Mu — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.105 |
| prereq | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. — Elon Musk | 37.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.105 |
| prereq | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everythin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.096 |
| prereq | 239_027 Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years — Elon Musk | 34.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.093 |
| prereq | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk | 37.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.087 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.635 | polymarket | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | 37% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-24 |
| 0.590 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 | |
| 0.578 | polymarket | Will Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-02-20 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1% wealth/yr, 5% distribution",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-Other",
"context": "I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I'm going to commit 1% of my wealth on an annual basis into a wealth fund, a smallcale pod of 44 people. 38 needsbased, seven or eight that are contributors and it's going to distribute 5% per year. 4% goes as cash, 1% goes to an expansion pool.",
"conv_cues": "I'm going to commit",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Ongoing annually",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Pincus/Donovan publicly announces wealth-pod structure",
"notes": "Source attribution unclear from transcript ('Mark Pack Donovan' likely transcription of 'Mark Pincus' or 'Pat Donovan'). Verify identity before tracking.",
"source": "Abundance Summit 2026 transcripts; founder X/blog",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_date": "2026-06-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-03-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Mark Pincus (or Mark Donovan, depending on transcription) publicly confirms 1% annual contribution + 5% distribution model for 44-person pod (38 needs-based + 7-8 contributors)"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-06-29",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "238_068",
"expected_date": "2026-08-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First annual disbursement to 44 recipients (4% cash + 1% expansion pool)",
"source": "Public disclosures; nonprofit filings",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2026-10-30",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-03-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Pod operator confirms first cycle of ~$X cash distributions to 38 needs-based + 7-8 contributor recipients per stated formula"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Pod publishes baseline wellbeing/income measurement of 44 recipients",
"source": "Diamandis blog; pod operator",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.35,
"expected_date": "2027-01-30",
"resea
... (truncated)